Tuesday 23rd September 2014

It hasn't been the best of months so far by any means, but I'd expect things to level out before the month's end. One or two things have gone against us lately: yesterday Mister Rockandroll was hampered on the home turn which cost him a lot of momentum. He is a big horse and had no real chance to get going again on that tight inner circuit - I think he'd have gone very close to winning with a clear run.

Two selections for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 5/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed.

2.50 Lingfield Swaheen 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, Racebets.com, guaranteed)

Swaheen is a half brother to Louis The Pious who made a nice debut at Lingfield over seven furlongs in July, finishing third under tender handling behind two nice horses. He disappointed second time out at Newcastle but didn't move well at all that day, and he actually ran ok considering he didn't appear to stride out well. I think he'll handle the switch to polytrack without any issues, and the step up to a mile should suit him looking at his pedigree. Sir Michael Stoute's horses have been in good form and I note this horse has an entry in a valuable sales race in early October. That would suggest he is thought of as a decent backend two year old, and I think he has every chance of breaking his maiden in this field today. Bnedel looked leggy and weak on debut, while the favourite Glorious Dubai is unraced and looks more of a three year old on paper. 5/1 is very fair, particularly with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

4.05 Nottingham Dalaki 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

This is a decent looking contest, but I've noted that the favourite Hesbaan doesn't look the strongest stayer at this trip and Dalaki is well handicapped with him on a line through This Is The Day based on Brighton form. The selection finished just ahead of This Is The Day getting 1lb, Hesbaan was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by him over the same course and distance, giving him 2lbs. Dalaki gets 5lbs off Hesbaan today and although that rival may not have acted at Brighton, it makes him look good value at the prices. He can be forgiven his Kempton run last time out - it was his all weather debut and he was given a pretty bad ride over a mile (indeed he did well to finish where he did). Returned to turf and with Richard Hughes booked for the first time, I'd be hopeful of an improved performance. I'd like to see him ridden with a little more patience (especially with Hesbaan and Daisy Boy likely to race prominently or lead) and the right jockey has been booked if those tactics are to be employed.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -95.50 / year: +252.55