5.50 Kempton Sheer Poetry 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Mike Murphy's horses have a good record at Kempton. He is a trainer whose representatives all seem to travel sweetly on artificial surfaces, and the selection seemed quite at home around here on her debut last year when she acquitted herself quite well. Despite being by a sire who imparts a stamina influence, this filly has a nice cruising speed which should enable her to get competitive on her first polytrack start since that debut. She has been running consistently well in better races than this over the summer, and although she hasn't threatened the judge this is enough of a step down in class to make her of interest. Her recent Leicester sixth was a fair effort and it was noticeable that she travelled into the race well, but didn't find much for pressure. I think this more forgiving surface could suit her better and if she improves something like 5lb for it, that should be good enough for a place at least. The excellent Luke Morris is booked for the ride and she is drawn ok in stall eight. This ten furlong distance is raced around the inside track, so horses with a decent cruising speed tend to have an advantage. Lola Montez would be the danger given that fact, but she doesn't look straightforward. Anything 9/1 or better looks fair about Sheer Poetry and we'll play each-way and win.
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Afternoon Bets:
Zipedeedodah won more impressively than the margin suggested yesterday.
5.00 Hamilton Salavatore Fury 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
Keith Dalgleish has already had a winner and a 2nd at today's Hamilton meeting and his representative in the sprint holds excellent claims in my view. The times suggests the ground has dried out and that will suit the selection perfectly. His run in a strong sprint handicap at Goodwood last month looks like decent form in the context of this race, and he seems to have room to manoeuvre from a handicap mark of OR72 based on that run. He is drawn well to take a tow into this contest from Baron Run and Grand Canaria Queen, and I'd make him shorter than his current odds - perhaps around 13/2. He may end up being backed on course; we'll play each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +31.00 / year: +381.05
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