1pt each-way double on today's selections, @ 9/1 and 12/1 generally guaranteed.
2.20 Leicester Kisumu 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
2.50 Leicester Quick Defence 4pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
September is traditionally a month when it is possible to follow Khalid Abdullah's two year olds blind and make a profit. Many of his horses are bred to come in to their own as autumn two year olds, and such is their quality that they often improve again as three year olds and older horses. There are good examples of Abdullah bred two year olds going off a decent prices and being good enough to get the job done first time out, and I like the pair Sir Michael Stoute sends to Leicester today based on their breeding. I have already alluded to the fact that first time out horses can offer value at this time of year in certain circumstances, and neither of the short priced favourites in this pair of seven furlong maidens look unbeatable. Outlaw Country looks a certainty on ratings in the 2.20, but he didn't appear to be closing the gap between he and Dougal / Justice Good at Newmarket on his debut. He has had close on four months off since that debut at this stage, suggesting that he has had physical problems, and if he is as good as his entries suggest I'm not sure they'd be sending to him to Leicester on a Tuesday. He looks worth taking on to me, and Kisumu looks a worthy rival on paper. His brother Redwood won first time out as a two year old and went on to be very decent on fast turf (won a U.S. Grade 1 on turf). Conditions look perfect for him on breeding and although Stoutes have been coming on for the run, his yard is 4/9 here for the season and he is 5/23 with two year olds in the last five years.
Ryan Moore is booked for Quick Defence in the 2.50pm, with Abdullah's retained jockey on the odds on favourite. Dancetrack didn't do anything quickly first time out and has a bit of a head carriage about him. He might well come on a ton and win this handy, but he isn't for me at odds on and I'll take him on with the stable's apparent second string. He is more speedily bred again and should be up to putting in a big performance first time up at this stage of the year. Everything Ryan Moore rides is worth keeping an eye on at this stage of the season and I see no reason why the selection is as big as 12/1.
We'll back the pair win only and include them in an each-way double.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +11.00 / year: +361.05
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