7.45 Kempton Blue Bounty 6pts win @ 8/1 / 15/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Much of Blue Bounty's form this year gives makes him look well handicapped, and he makes plenty of appeal tonight with the potential for further improvement on this surface. He travels strongly, but seems to be a bit awkward when he is asked to fully lengthen and let himself down on turf, so I'm interested to see if the forgiving polytrack surface suits him as well as it has suited others horses of this type in the past. His second behind Strike A Light at Yarmouth has been well franked by the winner, and the Beverley third in July behind Heska has been franked by the runner up who has since won twice. Blue Bounty gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance, and looks really dangerous from bottom weight with a good draw in stall two. He should travel well into the contest, after that it's a question of whether he wants to go through with it mentally, or whether the forgiving nature of the surface is enough to allow him to use his stride fully. We'll play win only.
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Afternoon Bets:
One bet for this afternoon. A possible evening bet will follow before 5.15pm.
3.00 Doncaster Kingsgate Native 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)
This is a decent looking listed contest but it looks worth taking many of the principals on. I'd expect this contest to be run somewhere around 58.5 - 59.5 seconds looking at the current ground conditions and that gives Reckless Abandon and Steps a lot to do. Reckless Abandon has never won a race in that kind of time and Steps is probably a bit too slow as well, particularly with 10-0 to carry on his back. Kingsgate Native is a horse who should be ideally suited by this trip and test. He isn't as good as he once was, but he can generally be relied upon to run his race these days and he does pop up when things are in his favour. He has a Group 2 win to his name as recently as last year and a series of decent performances to his name already in 2014. I don't think Robert Cowell's stable had the best of summers but his horses have seemed a bit better in the past month and the selection's Beverley run last week was a decent won on a track which I don't think suited. The opposition should hold no fears here and with Ryan Moore in the plate, he makes loads of appeal at a double figure price. We'll have a decent stake each-way and win - anything 9/1+ is very good value.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -2.00 / year: +348.05
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