Friday 24th October 2014

Two selections for this evening.

7.20 Wolverhampton Kraka Gym 5pts win @ 5/1 / 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Kraka Gym looks a potential polytrack improver this winter, and his recent second behind Plucky Dip has been franked. He got an absolute nightmare of a run that day, travelling five wide around the home turn, and he did well to finish where he did. The rest were comfortably beaten off, and the selection has done pretty well not to have been nudged up by the handicapper. One possible caveat is that he does seem to hang a bit under pressure, but it might be a case of him being the best handicapped horse in the race here and if he simply reproduces something like his last run, it might be enough to see him win. He looks decent value against the favourite at the prices.

7.50 Wolverhampton Monte Cassino 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a bit of a donkey derby, and I'd suggest that some of the horses with sexier, more "unexposed" profiles might not do the business - Swiss Lait and Adimendis in particular don't look the easiest of rides and I'd happily avoid professional losers like Sewn Up. I don't see much value in El Mirage either, and I'd rather take a chance on the old boy Monte Cassino. His stable's first runner today went close in the big Doncaster sprint, and this horse popped up at a price over course and distance in this month last year. He looks well handicapped, and the lack of a recent run or recent form doesn't bother me given his tendency of putting it all together only once in a while. A good claimer takes a valuable 5lb off and with a decent draw in stall 4, he can make the running and perhaps hold on while the horses who don't like to win are trying to have a think about things.

Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +73.20 / year: +267.75

Thursday 23rd October 2014

Just one for Kempton.

5.40 Kempton Just Marion 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Just Marion has had a long season but her trainer Dave Evans isn't afraid of keeping his juveniles busy. She was even sent over to Ireland in early September, where she ran okay, but her form tailed off a bit after that. However, her recent Wolverhampton run was more promising and she finished out the seven furlongs well having got behind and been under pressure for most of the race. She was quite tenderly handled in the closing stages and there was probably a bit more in the locker. As a result I'm interested in her here, stepped up another furlong in trip and dropped 3lb in the handicap. This race is full of potential improvers but they aren't guaranteed to find stones for their handicap debuts and I can pick holes in most of them. Just Marion gets George Baker in the saddle for the first time and I'm hoping he rides her forward, because she isn't a turn of foot horse. If she runs to her best form, she can go close and she is a few points too big at 20/1. We'll play each-way and win.

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Afternoon bets:

One bet for this afternoon, with possible evening bets - details before 5.30pm either way.

4.20 Ludlow Old Pals Act 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

This is a poor contest, and many of these have been failing to win in bad summer jumping contests, have been out of form, or look set to be unsuited by this sharp track and quickish ground (in the case of Wind And Waves). Old Pals Act's Market Rasen form would suggest that a sharp right handed track suits him well, and despite looking a quirky sort, he seems to be improving and looks overpriced at 5/1 here. He has gone up 9lb for his last win, but connections seem to be finding the key to him and this is a really clever piece of placement. It is essentially a poor 0-120 on a track that should suit. As a six year old son of Presenting, the selection is probably only finding his feet with the racing game and there should be plenty of improvement to come. He certainly travelled as if that would be the case at Market Rasen, and I think perhaps the 54 day break since could be a positive. Richie McLernon retains the ride, and his quiet style seems to suit the horse really well. Johnjo O'Neill hasn't had many winners in the past week outside of his Cheltenham double, and I think that might be part of the reason this horse isn't attracting interest. He looks the most progressive horse in here by some way and if he can continue his good recent form, he should go close here.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +53.20 / year: +247.75

Wednesday 22nd October 2014

Just one selection for Wednesday - nothing makes appeal at Kempton this evening so out next e-mail will follow tomorrow.

4.10 Fontwell Boss In Boots 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

An interesting little handicap chase. Vikekhal has been well backed this morning following a decent chase debut. My issue with him is that he displayed an awkward head carriage in the closing stages of his race last time, and I'm not sure he is guaranteed to improve for that run eighteen days later. His stable haven't really hit top form yet and at the prices I'll take him on. Similarly, Alanjou looked a little bit slow on his chase debut, and I think his inability to lie up caused him to get behind horses which ultimately contributed to him being brought down. He will need more tactical speed at a track like Fontwell and I'm also happy to take him on - despite the fact that he jumps well. Seamus Mullins' Boss In Boots looks the value here at 6/1. He was well backed for his chase debut, but burst a blood vessel. He won next time out, and followed up with a well beaten second (behind a classy veteran) at Fontwell next time out. He has had a nice break since and I think he might improve for the step up in trip looking at his hurdles form. He jumps well, and the only caveat is that he can be keen on occasion. The rain has largely missed Fontwell and I think the ground will be perfect for this son of Kings' Theatre. 6/1+ looks very fair and he gets the call over the course specialist but more exposed Venetian Lad.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +64.20 / year: +258.75

Tuesday 21st October 2014

Just one bet for this evening.

8.30 Kempton Gigawatt 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Represents Jim Boyle, who trains Perfect Pastime, who won for us yesterday. Gigawatt had a year off before making a pleasing return over seven furlongs here in August, in the race won by Galatian. He finished well under tender handling, having understandably been sent off 50/1. He has come on well since, and has put in two performances at Epsom and Wolverhampton (done in a photo) that suggest he is well handicapped off OR74. He drops back to six furlongs tonight, but it is interesting to note that he showed good tactical speed at Brighton five days ago before being eased right off. That was on heavy ground at a track he has never run at, so I'm prepared to forgive the run. This looks a weak 0-75 and his trainer must think so too, to turn him out relatively quickly. He has has four runs since his comeback in August and has been in training for two months at least, so I don't think bouncing is a problem. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride and if the selection can run to his Wolves or Epsom form, he can account for these. I'd hope he is ridden more prominently than he has been over seven - the stable are shrewd enough and the jockey knows the horse quite well - anything but being held up in the rear should suffice and the 9/1 available is too big.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for Tuesday afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details either way before 5.30pm as usual.

5.50 Wolverhampton Larghetto 5pts win @ 6/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Larghetto is a course and distance winner (on polytrack) who transferred to Ian Williams earlier this year and has run a couple of good races since joining her new stable. However, it was noticeable that she didn't see out her race that well last time, having travelled easily into the contest. Williams is noted as a trainer who does well with horses who have had breathing problems, and I would imagine this mare has had some attention in that regard over the course of the summer. A first time tongue tie is applied this evening, and although that might set alarm bells ringing, you have to think she is well handicapped off OR60 if it helps her see out her race more strongly. The booking of Danny Tudhope would suggest connections very much mean business, and the fact that she is drawn three and can race prominently in a race devoid of much pace makes her very appealing at the current prices. We'll play win only; I'd make her a 9/2 shot on my book so the current prices look very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +69.20 / year: +263.75

Monday 20th October 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

4.50 Windsor Perfect Pastime 6pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - WON 15c R4

Perfect Pastime was best of those on the near side at Brighton last time out, and in the old days he'd be a 5/2 shot in the morning here, but that isn't a trendy angle to use these days and he hasn't interested punters much this morning. He has been very progressive in 2014, with two wins and a number of creditable runs. Most of those were at Brighton, but he has good Windsor form on this sort of ground behind Links Drive Lady and I think he is a deserved favourite here. He handles heavy ground, and he showed an ability to travel well just off a strong pace over 5.5 furlongs last time which will stand him in good stead today. There is plenty of early speed on here, and if the selection can lay up over this bare five (which will in effect be more like five and a half given the field will tack across to the stands side) then the race should set up for him. He is well handicapped and appeals as a typical late maturing sprinter who is in the form of his life. 4/1 guaranteed is very fair and we'll play win only.

Profit & loss: day: +20.40 / month: +79.20 / year: +273.75

Saturday 18th October 2014

One selection for this evening.

6.15 Wolverhampton Poetic Choice 5pts win @ 15/2 (Skybet, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Poetic Choice is by Byron, whose progeny are more profitable to back on artificial surfaces than on turf. The selection won impressively over six furlongs here last winter, and generally performed with credit until she went off the boil early this year. She rediscovered her form this summer, but seems best around this time of year and I'm hopeful she can carry on improving on this surface today. She hasn't raced yet on Tapeta but early indications are that many horses who handle polytrack perform to a similar level on the new surface. Based on her summer form, she appeals as well handicapped off OR75, and if she proves to be better on synthetics as I think she might be, then she can handle this field this evening. She has top weight to carry, but looks the best horse in the race and it looks a good piece of placement keeping her against her own sex. 13/2+ is fair and the booking of Luke Morris is a positive. A wide draw shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience over this trip.

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Afternoon bets:

Nice to see Sybarite do the job at 10/1 yesterday, he was good value for the winning margin and will win again before the season is out in my view.

Another cracking day's racing today, and we have two interests this afternoon. Possible evening bets before 5.30pm, details either way as usual.

2.35 Cheltenham Croco Bay 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 22/1 Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Current connections paid £70,000 for Croco Bay at Cheltenham in May, and they have presumably sent him to Ben Case with the intention of winning a big handicap with him. It is interesting he was sent to Galway for the festival there, and he ran well into third on ground that would have been too soft for him. He didn't find much at Worcester last time out, but it was an unusual run because he travelled well into the contest before not finding as much as looked likely close home. He was prominent in the market that day and one has to assume connections feel he is better than his current mark. Perhaps a bigger field and step up in trip could be the answer, and I think this looks a winnable race if he suddenly sparks into life. His stable done really well last year with the hurdler Deep Trouble, and they are a force to be reckoned with given the right ammunition. Daryl Jacob retains the ride here, and I just wonder if he'll bury him out the back and bring him into the race as late as possible. Croco Bay's jumping is very solid, and that will stand him in good stead around here. We're taking a chance on a relative dark horse, but that is certainly factored into the odds and if today's conditions bring about improvement, the price might look silly after the race.

4.05 Ascot Ruler Of The World 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 / 13/2 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365, Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral all pay 1/4 1-2-3)

Ruler Of The World comes into this race off the back of a light campaign and he appears to have been aimed at this contest some time in advance. His Prix Foy win showed he has trained on as a four year old, and he got closer to Treve in this year's Arc than he did as a three year old. He followed his Arc run last year with an excellent third in this race, pulling well clear with Faarh and Cirrus Des Aigles and only giving best by three quarters of a length. That came after a long campaign - his first season to race - and I think there was additional merit in the performance given the wide trip he suffered. He has a much better draw today and connections will surely want to ride him prominently. Last year's race was slowly run due to the Godolphin pacemaker Hunter's Light setting easy fractions, but with Noble Mission in the line up I expect the pace to be at least fair - I wouldn't be surprised to see Joseph O'Brien make it himself if he needs to. Track trip and ground are perfect for the selection, he is a proper Group 1 horse unlike many of these, and I think he can fight this out with Cirrus Des Aigles. At the prices and with 1/4 odds being offered by many bookmakers, it makes sense to play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +58.80 / year: +253.35

Friday 17th October 2014

A fantastic day's racing, whether flat or jumps is your thing. From here on in, the Breeder's Cup aside, I'll mostly be concentrating on the jumps and all weather racing, and Cheltenham's excellent card today throws up two races of interest.

We may have evening bets, details as usual before 5.30pm.

2.40 Cheltenham Thomas Crapper 5pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

Robin Dickin tends to do better with chasers than hurdlers, so it is testament to this horse's talent that he managed two wins at this course over hurdles last season. He has always looked to me like he would make a better chaser -  the shape he makes and the way he jumps a hurdle suggests he should take well to the larger obstacles. I would imagine connections had planned a mixed hurdle / chase campaign last year, but having won his first two races over hurdles it probably made sense to stick to them for the rest of the season. The stable recently had a novice chase winner at Towcester, and this looks a good starting point for a chaser that I think may take over from Restless Harry as the stable's flagship horse. Court Minstrel is the horse to beat, but he wasn't tested much on his debut and may not be suited by chasing around here. Un Ace is talented and could really take to fences, but the selection is my preference at the prices given his record fresh and course form. 9/2+ is very fair.

3.15 Cheltenham

Sybarite 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 10/1 sp

Abolitionist 2pts win @ Betfair SP

Some of the market principals here aren't guaranteed stayers, and a look through the last few winners of this contest would suggest you really need to stay, as if that wasn't a no brainer already over this stiff three miles. Sybarite has won over further and has been a revelation since connections abandoned his chasing campaign and returned him to hurdles last winter. After a poor run at Ascot, he was stepped up to three miles and his form figures at this trip and further since read 2411. This is only his ninth hurdles start, and he looks unexposed to me off a mark of OR125. He appeals as the type to progress again this season and his trainer tends to have his horses ready sooner rather than later.

The booking of a top 5lb claimer to ride Abolitionist takes the eye. He is a veteran of 27 career starts already despite only being a six year old, but he has improved over the summer since stepping up to marathon distances and there might still be more to come off a mark of OR115. He stayed on strongly at the finish behind Thekingofconnemara last time out, and it is interesting his three hurdles wins have come in big fields, including a 1/24 at Punchestown which, like Cheltenham, is a very stiff track. He has been supported this morning, but I think he'll drift a little on the exchanges before the off and I'd hope to get a bit better than the current 14/1 on offer by playing at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: +33.00 / month: +74.80 / year: +269.35

Thursday 16th October 2014

One selection for this afternoon, with possible evening bets to follow - details either way before 5.30pm.

4.15 Punchestown Roi Du Mee 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Gordon Elliot's string are in really good form, and the Meath trainer had a treble at Punchestown yesterday. His Roi Du Mee has a record of 112 in this contest, and has won this race on his seasonal debut before. You would have to think this has been his early season target for a while now, and even though Bryan Cooper opts for Don Cossack, I think the selection is better value at the current prices. I'd think both Don Cossack and Alderwood will have other targets ahead, and may just get looked after today. Paul Carberry takes the ride on Roi Du Mee and I made him a 5/2 shot after Rubi Light's withdrawl, so we're getting a point better than what I believe to be his true odds.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +41.80 / year: +236.35

Wednesday 15th October 2014

An early selection for Lingfield.

1.30 Lingfield Sea Of Red 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP. - E/W 3rd

Sarsted made a really nice debut and deserves to be favourite here, but should he fail to fire or handle this surface, then Sea Of Red might be able to cause a minor shock. He is a well made colt by Duke Of Marmalade, whose progeny have a very good record on artificial surfaces. The selection was very green on his debut two weeks ago, but really got the hand of things late on and finished his race very well. If he can travel a bit better in the early stages of today's race, he will be a danger to all over this longer trip. He is bred to be winning at about a mile this year, and he shaped as though it would suit on that promising debut. I think anything in double figures is a fair price. With the market shaped as it is, there is a chance of the Betfair SP on the win market being inflated due to the presence of an odds on favourite. With that in mind, we'll stake as above.

Profit & loss: day: +1.80 / month: +46.80 / year: +241.35

Tuesday 14th October 2014

Just one selection for today; I found it a really difficult day to find an edge or angle in with most of the races.

6.30 Wolverhampton Steelriver 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

This is a bet that will probably be won or lost at the start of the contest. Steelriver sometimes starts slowly, and if he gets a poor early position over this seven furlong trip with the first bend coming up quickly, then the likelihood is he will struggle to win. However, I find the booking of Robert Winston really interesting here. He is an intelligent jockey who can generally (although not always) be depended upon to do the right thing: he seems to have an awareness of rail biases, pace and other such intricacies that many jockeys don't factor in. Steelriver ran a really good race here last time, and had the field pretty much cooked before fading badly late on. That was after he missed the break and raced keenly, and all of this off the back of a break. It seems safe to assume he just got tired late on, and although he is up in the weights today, I would suggest he will improve for this trainer, who is having a very good year. There are quite a few hold up horses in here, and I'm hoping Winston can sit in third or fourth off a slow pace, and send his mount for home getting an early run on the likes of Plucky Dip and Footstepsintherain, both of whom are finishers. If Steelriver can get that decent early position, I'd make him a 2/1 shot to go on and win the race based on that last run. I'm happy to take the chance on him at 9/2 with the jockey booking an important variable is deciding that he is worth the risk.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +45.00 / year: +239.55

Saturday 11th October 2014

Two bets for us this afternoon, as well as possible evening bets to follow before 5.30pm.

Just a note that I'm still working on our winter schedule. I had promised it for Wednesday but opening up the fixture list was a bit of a Pandora's Box and it's taking longer than I had anticipated.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - 13/2 and 7/2 generally guaranteed.

3.20 Hexham Mister Wall Street 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Many of Lucinda Russell's horses are running below form, and as a result I'd be quite keen to take on Clondaw Knight at a short price, under a big weight on his seasonal reappearance. Mister Wall Street is a three time Hexham winner who seems to love this place, and is value for much more than the winning margin of his chase win here in June, as he was dossing in the closing stages. His Bangor run in July suggests to me that he might make a better chaser than hurdler. He went down fighting against two decent horses who have followed up since,Valleyofmilan and Prince De Marais. He is 2lb lower now than he was for that run, which strikes me as a bit of a quirk of handicapping, leaving him only 4lb higher than the relatively comfortable course win in June. He is no superstar, but he looks the best handicapped horse in this race to me by some way, and this race may have been his target for the last few weeks - his recent Sedgefield spin looked like a pipe opener after a few weeks break. With the dead eight lining up, he looks a very attractive each-way proposition at the prices.

4.20 Chepstow Dormello Mo 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)

There is enough ego and will to win within the Paul Nicholls camp that I'm sure they would have wanted to target this decent prize of £25,000 with a decent horse. Dormello Mo looks a classy type of horse who will be well suited to this galloping track in my view, based on the evidence of his Sandown win last season. Things didn't go right for him at Newbury after that, but he always looked like a bit of a "next year's horse" and he may have been put away after that with a race like this in mind, his trainer knowing that a hurdles mark of OR130 is well within his capabilities. Conditions should be fine here and I'm not a big fan of Dawalan, Henderson's representative. Manhattan Swing looked a bit awkward in the closing stages last time and I don't think he's certain to follow that run up, while Bertimont looks flattered by his Fairyhouse run (sat handy in a race run at a crawl) and I'm not tempted even with his trainer in good form. This could be between the top two in the betting and although Dawalan has the better jockey, the selection appeals as better handicapped and perhaps the horse with more potential. He is also around twice the price of Dawalan and we'll support him as a result.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +22.50 / year: +217.05

Friday 10th October 2014

Just one for this evening.

6.50 Wolverhampton Dreams Of Reality 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There's loads of speed on in this sprint, and I can see an absolute burn up as they approach the first bend. I can count at least five horses who like to try and make all, so it is safe to assume this will be run at a strong pace. Many of these are not proven on the surface, and strictly speaking that goes for Dreams Of Reality too as she hasn't won on Tapeta. However, her form figures on polytrack read 2110, and I think that counts for a lot given early evidence comparing polytrack with Tapeta. She was only beaten on debut, and at right handed Kempton last time out when she hung left off the bend. She has had a nice break, but her trainer tends to have his horses ready and the bonus here is her draw in stall 5 and the fact that she can travel strongly off a strong pace, buried in mid pack. Her running style is quite simply perfect for this contest, and judging on her Lingfield win in Spring (trapped wide and still won handy) there is more to come from her this winter. Richard Kingscote rides this track particularly well and I like backing his horses in sprints. With only 1/5 odds paid for a place, I'm inclined to play win only.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets before 5.30pm.

4.30 Newton Abbot Russia With Love 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Chris Down usually has his horses ready first time up, but Russia With Love seems to reserve her best specifically for her first visit to the track after a break, and in particular on soft ground, which makes her of plenty of interest in this mares' handicap. If we exclude her debut, which she might have been expected to need, her form figures after an absence off 100+ days read 21163. She has been pulled up on her last two starts and broke blood vessels last time out, but she is the type of horse who could throw up a surprise when least expected in these conditions. It is interesting connections persevere with her as an eight year old: she has already won twice and must be of some value as a broodmare. It follows that connections must feel there is more to come off a handicap mark of OR108, and although the handicapper hasn't relented much of late she has run better than that mark before. If her trainer has her right today, she has her ideal conditions under which to show her best, and at the prices she appeals because the pair of market leaders don't look like Quevegas in the making. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +36.50 / year: +231.05

Thursday 9th October 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

8.20 Wolverhampton Coillte Cailin 3pts each-way @ 33/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill) - E/W 3rd @ 40/1 sp

This is a fair field for the grade, but on her best form Coillte Cailin would be a match for most if not all of her rivals. She has posted most of her best efforts at this track, and although she has not yet won a race, I think she might be the type who will eventually flourish and pick up a few races on this surface in time. She has not yet been on the Tapeta here, but many horses who handled the polytrack surface seem to handle this, and her trainer Daniel Loughnane has been amongst the most successful here since the track was relaid. Indeed his older horses have a very respectable 18% strike rate at this track in 2014, quite eye catching given his stable doesn't contain any real stars. The selection comes into this off a 77 day break, but she posted her best turf run after an 88 day break at Haydock in May, so she clearly goes well enough fresh that her absence isn't a concern. She looks well handicapped off OR62 based on all her Wolverhampton runs apart from her final one, which prompted the 88 day break after a busy period. She has a little bit of scope to her and might be the type to do well now later in her four year old season. With her trainer in such good form, and little to prove at the track, she makes plenty of appeal on a straight each-way basis at 33/1. I'd expect her to go off not bigger than 20/1.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets to follow before 5.30pm.

4.30 Worcester Gaelic Myth 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R

Gaelic Myth makes his debut over hurdles today having won quite impressively on his bumper debut late last season. He looks an uncomplicated type of horse and will probably be ridden from the front today as he was at Ludlow. He is nicely bred and is described as a good jumper by Kim Bailey, his trainer, who rates him as having a decent chance in this race. I don't think Paul Nicholls or Johnjo O'Neills' winter horses are quite ready yet, but Kim Bailey's seem to be quite forward and Gaelic Myth's working partner Gold Man won at Towcester yesterday. As De Mee was very keen at Kempton in February and may not be easy to train despite his pricetag, and Highpower might be better over further in time. Gaelic Myth looks the value here at the prices and we'll play win only.

Profit & loss: day: +21.00 / month: +37.50 / year: +232.05

Wednesday 8th October 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

7.55 Kempton Masterpaver 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 / 15/2 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Masterpaver ran a fine race over course and distance last week behind to finish second behind the unexposed Daaree, giving the older horse 5lbs. On reflection, it was Masterpaver's first run in five weeks, and he seems to be a horse who thrives on his racing. That was a career best performance on ratings, and he turns out today of the same handicap mark and seems to have every chance. Although there is potential in here, I don't see anything quite up to Daaree's standard and the selection seems to have been a little bit ignored at the prices. I can't see why Double Discount and Jazz Master deserve to be as short as they are, and I'd make the selection more like 11/2 than his current 15/2+. We'll back him each-way and win.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets to follow before 5.30pm.

2.40 Towcester Kitchapoly 6pts win @ 9/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed)

I find the market drift on Kitchapoly this morning hard to fathom. He has already won on his chase debut, performing quite well and never really looking in trouble despite the small field, and has fitness on his side against two rivals making their chase debuts under rules (one of them admittedly can go well fresh). He gets all the 4yo allowances and has the best jockey in the race on his back, and is trained by a stable whose chasers have a 25% strike rate at this track over the course of the last five seasons. I don't think Knight Of Pleasure is a star, and Garrahalish might be more of a danger. He will probably want further in time, though, and the likelihood of a slow pace here will suit the selection, who has a high cruising speed and should be able to get into a decent jumping rhythm. 2/1+ appeals and he will be our first jumps bet of the season.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +16.50 / year: +211.05

Saturday 4th October 2014

It was nice to get back in the groove on Thursday evening - Speedy Writer won very well in the end and can probably follow up upped in grade.

Just one for today. Just a note that we won't be betting tomorrow - I had fancied Ivanhowe for the Arc but not now that he is drawn in stall 19.

7.30 Wolverhampton The Great Gabrial 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Looks overpriced for a horse who seems to be coming into form and ran really well here two runs back where he was forced wide and made his move too early. Devilment and I'm Back look big dangers but at the prices the selection looks standout value. He is drawn in stall 9 here and I think the race will be run at a decent pace which should suit. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +4.00 / month: +24.50 / year: +219.05

Thursday 2nd October 2014

Two selections for today. 

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 13/2 and 11/1 or similar generally available guaranteed.

5.45 Kempton Speedy Writer 5pts win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 Bet Victor, guaranteed) - WON

Speedy Writer is a son of Byron, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on polytrack greatly exceeds his progeny's ratio on turf. The selection is a four year old, but he is an interesting sort of horse in that he has ridden by amateurs quite a lot, and it may be he is a nervous type of horse. He has also tended to weaken out of his races having travelled well (see two of his three Kempton runs) but that pattern changed last time out. He was given a nice quiet ride over seven furlongs and stayed on strongly to the line under tender handling. It is hard to know whether that flattered him, but I find it interesting he is sent back to Kempton today and that Dane O'Neill is booked. He is entered in a very winnable 0-60, and this has the look of "today is the day" about it. The yard's horses have been running very well of late and O'Neill rode a double here last night (including Daaree, which beat our selection Masterpaver into second). We'll play to win and use him in an each-way double.

6.15 Kempton Grand Proposal 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Grand Proposal is by Exceed And Excel, whose progeny go really well on polytrack and tend to improve for the switch to the surface. His dam is a fibresand winner who is a half sister to Admirable Duque, a prolific horse on this surface. The selection was the only one to make inroads from the rear in a Beverley maiden that suited front runners last time out, and I don't think the track really suited him. He did travel strongly, and I think he should improve for the switch to this surface. He has a wide draw to overcome but that shouldn't be an issue over the mile trip. Many of these have question marks over the trip, or well being (New Brunswick for example, tends to weaken late on). I think the selection looks a very decent price and should run well. The handicapper dropped him 4lb for the Beverley run which sees him qualify for 0-70 company and the slight drop in grade and surface switch can do the trick. He is too big at anything in double figures, and I like the application of cheekpieces (interestingly, Admirable Duque won the first time he wore them) and the booking of Jamie Spencer.

Profit & loss: day: +25.50 / month: +20.50 / year: +215.05

Wednesday 1st October 2014

Just one bet for Kempton this evening.

7.45 Kempton Masterpaver 5pts win @ 11/2 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Masterpaver can't be called well handicapped, but the fact is he keeps going up in the weights for winning races on polytrack and he has no questions to answer over this trip at this course. The form of his recent second over course and distance looks very strong indeed. The winner Anglo Irish followed up here next time out, and third Fire Fighting has won twice since. Invasor Luck, who was seventh, also won next time out. The selection struggled early this year when his yard were out of form, but he has improved lately and I just wonder if connections might even be eyeing up a trip to Dubai early next year. His profile is very progressive, and the fact that he still gets the three year old allowance of 6lbs off his older rivals is a real bonus. anything around 5/1+ is decent value. Richard Hughes looks an excellent jockey booking.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: +189.55

Tuesday 30th September 2014

Two selections for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 3/1 and 6/1 generally.

3.50 Ayr Rust 5pts win @ 3/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Rust looks the best horse in this race, and looks progressive having picked up a race already this season, and gone close last time when he didn't get much of a run. He is by Jeremy, and is a big horse who can have been expected to need time to develop. This galloping track will suit him and provided he is able to reproduce last week's form, I expect him to win this. It's the time of the season where there aren't many progressive horses running and this looks an exception to me. I'd have made him closer to 2/1 myself, and I think the current price is good value. We'll include him in an each-way double.

5.00 Ayr Jinky 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Jinky has probably improved a little bit this season and gets his ideal conditions here with six furlongs at Ayr on good ground. I think he needs a strong pace to run at these days, and he should get it today with Rise To Glory and perhaps one or two others (Monel, Chookies Lass have both front run) to set the tempo. He was well backed here a couple of weeks ago but the race didn't pan out for him and he looked a little too slow for the five furlongs. If Joe Fanning can get him well positioned early, he is well handicapped enough to win this with one of his customary late galloping runs.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -153.50 / year: +194.55

Monday 29th September 2014

2.20 Bath Activation 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed).

Hughie Morrison has a 5/12 42% strike rate with two year olds at this track over the last five seasons, and was responsible for the winner of this contest two years ago. He enters Activation here, stepped up fully three furlongs in trip to ten furlongs. There is only limited evidence on his pedigree that he might improve for the step up in trip, and chances are he may not, but that is factored into his price and he is interesting off a mark of OR57 at these odds, in a moderate looking nursery. The selection already has experience of this quirky track, staying on quite well late in the day over five and a half furlongs on his third start in early August. He was stepped up to a mile on the all weather after that, which returned no dividends, and nor did stepping him back in first time cheekpieces at Lingfield's turf course. His latest run over seven furlongs on turf was more promising, albeit dropped to selling class. He stayed on well late in the race, racing away from the action and really looking like he was only getting going. Richard Hughes may have suggested stepping him up in trip and it is interesting not only that connections do so, but that they have taken the trouble to book Silvestre De Sousa, with Hughes riding for his boss Richard Hannon. Most of the opposition today haven't achieved a great deal on the track, and it is probably a case of whatever horse improves the most for these conditions, wins. Activation's course form, lowly handicap mark, and recent form all give him a chance and he is overpriced at 16/1+.

4.40 Hamilton Chooseday 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R

Kevin Stott has a respectable 15% strike rate at this track for an apprentice, and his mount Chooseday looks to big at the prices for the feature sprint. The selection returned to form two runs back at Ripon, with a very strong third of twenty behind Duke Cosimo. He has had excuses since, and faces some course specialists here, but that form looks particularly strong in the context of this race and the selection appears to be well drawn here. He should get a tow into the contest from Baron Run and perhaps King Of Eden, and provided the gaps come at the right time he should be able to pick the leaders up late on. This horse can be hard to predict, but he has everything in his favour today including his handicap mark of OR81 and the 5lb claim of his rider. He has the ability to win this on a going day and I think Hamilton will suit him. We'll play win only at the 10/1.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -143.50 / year: +204.55

Saturday 27th September 2014

One selection for Saturday evening.

7.30 Wolverhampton William Hogarth 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 11/1 Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Independents, guaranteed)

Alba Verde is clearly on the up, but looks a short price at around 5/4 for a horse stepping up 3 1/2 furlongs in trip from an 11lb higher mark than that which she won off two weeks ago. She takes on mostly poor, exposed types here but one rival who might find some improvement is William Hogarth. He is no spring chicken, but has won four races mixing flat and hurdles as he usually does, and his flat win was on Dundalk's polytrack over a mile and a half. He hasn't had many opportunities on artificial surfaces, but ran well here in April off the back of a break, only fading out of contention late on against better horses when fitness might have become an issue.

More importantly, the selection switched from Keith Goldsworthy to the excellent Brian Ellison in early August. In three runs since, he has a second placed finish and a pair of thirds. His recent third place at Newcastle came on ground much too fast for him, but he stayed on pleasingly in the closing stages in a fair looking contest for the grade. That was his first run over a marathon trip for Ellison, and I find it interesting he sends him to Wolverhampton now off this lowly rating. He should enjoy this more forgiving surface, and I expect another big run given this trainer's knack of sweetening up horses. He runs off a basement mark, and a good jockey is booked in Ben Curtis. Consistency, recent well being and form, and the stamina to stay this trip will all be important in this race, and I think the selection is really good value at anything in double figures.

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Afternoon bets:

A really difficult few weeks for our selections continued yesterday. We haven't suffered a losing run of any description in quite a while, but losing runs are unfortunately inevitable and aren't nice when they come along. My own personal method for dealing with them is to work as hard as I can to find winners (simple problem, simple solution), and having experienced this type of thing before, I try not to get too emotionally involved in it. As I said over the summer when we were firing in winners, you won't seem me getting a God complex when everything's going right, nor panicking when everything I tip forgets how to run straight.

One selection for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, which will be released before 5.00pm.

3.50 Newmarket Bancnuanaheireann 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Skybet pay 6 places, Bet Victor pay 5, William Hill pay 7 places on 20/1 - use a bookmaker who pays at least 5 places.

Bancnuanaheireann is proven over course and distance having won last year's Silver Cambridgeshire impressively. His trainer is on record as having targeted this race with the horse all season, and the horse's lightly raced profile reflects that. He is 5lb higher than last season in a better race, but he handled this unique course extremely well last year and was value for much more than the eventual winning margin. On the evidence of yesterday's consolation race, the stands side is the place to be which makes the selection well drawn in stall 29. He enjoys rattling fast ground, and he is the type of horse who is prefectly suited to travelling in mid pack off a strong pace before being sent on with a furlong to go. He makes plenty of appeal at the prices with various question marks about most of the unexposed, "sexy" horses near the top of the market. The each-way terms are very fair and we'll play as above.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -138.50 / year: +209.55

Friday 26th September 2014

One bet for this evening.

8.50 Wolverhampton Opera Buff 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

It's been a truly awful week for our selections, but it is wrong to change tack during a losing run just because you haven't had a winner in a while, and I've had a decent each-way bet on this horse because I think it's the most overpriced animal I've seen this week.

Opera Buff is 1/26 on his career, but he has been extremely consistent on the all weather since upped to staying trips and has posted career best efforts on the surface on his last two visits to Kempton. His last run is actually worth forgetting: the horse was disappointed at being held up, and is much better when allowed to stride along and get into a decent rhythm in front or close to the head of affairs. He nevertheless posted an RPR of 80, but he previous Kempton run in June is the really interesting one. He was allowed his own way in front at Kempton, and beat off all but Spice Fair in a tight finish over two miles. He gave Spice Fair 1lb that day, and the winner has won twice since and is now rated OR87. Saborido, the fifth, has won twice since and finished second to the improving Mick Duggan. That Kempton race was a 0-85 like his last run, and was much better contested than tonight's race. Wall Street Boss looks a fair favourite, but this represents a drop in class to 0-80 company and the top three in the market may not merit their current ratings. Stentorian hasn't been seen in around 18 months, Sunblazer has been disappointing lately over hurdles, and Investissement won a pretty bad seller in June and was well beaten next time out. Kingscombe looks a Southwell specialist, Lineman doesn't look to be a strong stayer at this trip, and Tappanappa isn't one to trust. Admirable Duque is a very decent yardstick and should run his race, but he looks handicapped close to his best on this surface.

Opera Buff has a big weight to carry, but there isn't much pace on here and his jockey Irineu Goncalves should be able to get him striding along at the head of affairs and into a decent rhythm. This intermediate 14 furlong trip looks perfect for Opera Buff, and if his jockey gets his fractions right I think he could be hard to pass if reproducing anything near his June form. The jockey seems to have an uncomplicated style and is quite tidy, so I have no reservations on that front. We'll play each-way and win.

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Afternoon bets:

An additional afternoon bet may follow before 3.00pm, we may also have evening bets today released before 5.30pm.

1.30 Haydock Carraig Rock 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 (Skybet, Sporting Bet, Bet Victor, William Hill)

Haydock has been heavily watered up until Monday, and took 12mm of rain on Tuesday as well as a shower this morning. Time and again the clerk of the course at Haydock messes about with the ground and it tends to result in slower than advertised conditions. It is often hard to make ground from behind when this scenario ensues, and strong travelling, prominent horses seem to be favoured. Carraig Rock has a good draw with which to get a handy early position, and he seemed to handle soft ground well over course and distance in June when he posted an RPR of 71 (tenderly handled and seemingly out to get a handicap mark). He runs off OR68 today and looks to be open to improvement. Hughie Morrison's string are in very good form, and the selection ran better than his finishing position suggests at Kempton last time out, travelling strongly but not really getting home over two miles. He looks overpriced in a middling looking field, and I'm further enthused by his jockey's 20% strike rate at this track.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -128.50 / year: +219.55

Thursday 25th September 2014

Two selections for Kempton.

1pt e/w double on tonight's selections, 6/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed.

6.45 Kempton Pantella 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R

Pantella is described by her trainer as a lovely filly who has been given plenty of time by her owners. She showed at Haydock last time that it might not be too long before she repays that kindness. Under tender handling from Robert Havlin, she travelled very well buried in the pack and was never really asked to get too involved in the contest, staying on very well late on all the same and eventually finishing fourth. She will have had a really good experience that day and this uncomplicated, genuine looking filly ought to come on for the run. She is closely related to horses who have excelled on the all weather, and her trainer's horses tend to run very well at this track - his 24% strike rate returning a profit of +83.34 to the unit stake over the last five seasons is very impressive. The favourite tonight, Karezak, looks flattered by his current mark and does not look a straightforward horse. I have little doubt having checked the visual evidence that Pantella could have gotten much closer to Karezak at Haydock had she been asked, and with normal improvement to come it's a no brainer to back her each-way against the odds on favourite at 6/1.

7.45 Kempton Presto Boy 5pts win @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Another from the Fanshawe stable. Presto Boy is a smashing looking horse, but hasn't put in much of a finishing effort in any of his starts to date, He wore a tongue tie on his last two starts, but having travelled very well he didn't see either race out particularly strongly. I find it interesting that he runs without any aids tonight - Fanshawe's  website suggests connections are very much aware of some slight breathing difficulties and I'm fairly sure Presto Boy will have had a little operation since he last ran to rectify the situation. If he can see this race out better, I think he can win it. He looks very well handicapped off OR66 even based on his course and distance run in a maiden two starts ago. This looks a win or bust type of bet, and we'll play win only but include him in an each-way double with our first selection.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -115.50 / year: +232.55

Wednesday 24th September 2014

Just one for this evening.

7.20 Kempton Just Marion 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Dave Evans likes to let his juveniles learn their job on the track, and that's evidenced by Just Marion's 14 career runs to date. She has won twice, but seems to be getting the hang of the game judging by her last two starts. She won well over this distance at Wolverhampton, responding really well for pressure just as her half sister Carcinetto always did, and she followed that run up with a really good run in an Irish sales race at the Curragh against a much better calibre of horse than she meets this evening. After becoming outpaced over the 6 1/2 furlong trip, she stayed on really well despite not getting a clear run on two occasions and she was perhaps value for the RPR of 65 she was awarded. She runs off OR59 this evening and looks to be well ahead of that mark. Adam Kirby is a really positive jockey booking, and if she can hold her position early from stall five I think she has every chance of beating this lot. They are mostly made up of horses expected to improve for their debut on the surface / handicap debut / for the step up in trip. The selection is proven on the surface, well handicapped, and sees out the trip strongly. On that basis she appeals plenty at the current prices.

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Afternoon bets:

Just one selection for this afternoon. Evening bets for Kempton will follow before 5.30pm.

4.00 Redcar Thornaby Princess 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

This looks a bit less competitive than the size of the field suggests, with mostly exposed older horses lining up against a largely out of form bunch of three year olds. The fact that Eland Ally is generally second or third favourite off the back of a second placed finish in this race last year, having not looked like troubling the judge lately, tells its own story.

When I handicapped the race, as always I checked the weather conditions first, and noted that Redcar applied 2mm of water last Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. They've also had 2.5mm overnight officially, although I have suspicions it might have been a bit more. I think those factors, combined with the big field here and presence of a number of front runners, should set this contest up for a closer and Thornaby Princess fits the bill.

The selection is described by her trainer Marjorie Fife as a hot headed filly, but she is also talented and she looked open to improvement when winning at Ripon in June. That was over six furlongs, but she travels very strongly and has been to keen over that trip on a number of occasions. Her two August runs over five furlongs offered hope of more to come. She was staying on really well at Doncaster before being hampered when a horse came across her, costing her all chance. Her Beverley 2nd behind Margret's Gift was a good run, but that track may not have suited and she was again inconvenienced by a horse running across her. Her Newcastle run is best forgotten, she got no cover over six furlongs and may have needed a bit of a rest.

I think a 33 day break might be in her favour today. She had been off a long time in June when she won, and could be the type of horse best after a few weeks off. She hasn't had any chances yet in a proper big field sprint over five furlongs, and I think it could be the making of her. She is reunited today with Russ Kennemore, whose record on her reads 1,2. Drawn in stall five, the best of the opposition are around her and pace angles in Little Eli and Orient Class. Marjorie Fife's horses have been running well in recent days (including a sprinter who went close at Musselburgh) and at the prices the selection makes plenty of appeal. I'm keen to get a decent each-way return on this if she runs in the first four, and I like the shape of the race for an each-way punt - some of these just don't look good enough on this year's form or may be inconvenienced by the way the race is run. Therefore we'll have three points each-way and a point win, which is a little bigger than our average outlay.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -108.50 / year: +239.55