Friday 10th October 2014

Just one for this evening.

6.50 Wolverhampton Dreams Of Reality 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There's loads of speed on in this sprint, and I can see an absolute burn up as they approach the first bend. I can count at least five horses who like to try and make all, so it is safe to assume this will be run at a strong pace. Many of these are not proven on the surface, and strictly speaking that goes for Dreams Of Reality too as she hasn't won on Tapeta. However, her form figures on polytrack read 2110, and I think that counts for a lot given early evidence comparing polytrack with Tapeta. She was only beaten on debut, and at right handed Kempton last time out when she hung left off the bend. She has had a nice break, but her trainer tends to have his horses ready and the bonus here is her draw in stall 5 and the fact that she can travel strongly off a strong pace, buried in mid pack. Her running style is quite simply perfect for this contest, and judging on her Lingfield win in Spring (trapped wide and still won handy) there is more to come from her this winter. Richard Kingscote rides this track particularly well and I like backing his horses in sprints. With only 1/5 odds paid for a place, I'm inclined to play win only.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets before 5.30pm.

4.30 Newton Abbot Russia With Love 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 18/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Chris Down usually has his horses ready first time up, but Russia With Love seems to reserve her best specifically for her first visit to the track after a break, and in particular on soft ground, which makes her of plenty of interest in this mares' handicap. If we exclude her debut, which she might have been expected to need, her form figures after an absence off 100+ days read 21163. She has been pulled up on her last two starts and broke blood vessels last time out, but she is the type of horse who could throw up a surprise when least expected in these conditions. It is interesting connections persevere with her as an eight year old: she has already won twice and must be of some value as a broodmare. It follows that connections must feel there is more to come off a handicap mark of OR108, and although the handicapper hasn't relented much of late she has run better than that mark before. If her trainer has her right today, she has her ideal conditions under which to show her best, and at the prices she appeals because the pair of market leaders don't look like Quevegas in the making. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: +36.50 / year: +231.05