A fantastic day's racing, whether flat or jumps is your thing. From here on in, the Breeder's Cup aside, I'll mostly be concentrating on the jumps and all weather racing, and Cheltenham's excellent card today throws up two races of interest.
We may have evening bets, details as usual before 5.30pm.
2.40 Cheltenham Thomas Crapper 5pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)
Robin Dickin tends to do better with chasers than hurdlers, so it is testament to this horse's talent that he managed two wins at this course over hurdles last season. He has always looked to me like he would make a better chaser - the shape he makes and the way he jumps a hurdle suggests he should take well to the larger obstacles. I would imagine connections had planned a mixed hurdle / chase campaign last year, but having won his first two races over hurdles it probably made sense to stick to them for the rest of the season. The stable recently had a novice chase winner at Towcester, and this looks a good starting point for a chaser that I think may take over from Restless Harry as the stable's flagship horse. Court Minstrel is the horse to beat, but he wasn't tested much on his debut and may not be suited by chasing around here. Un Ace is talented and could really take to fences, but the selection is my preference at the prices given his record fresh and course form. 9/2+ is very fair.
3.15 Cheltenham
Sybarite 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 10/1 sp
Abolitionist 2pts win @ Betfair SP
Some of the market principals here aren't guaranteed stayers, and a look through the last few winners of this contest would suggest you really need to stay, as if that wasn't a no brainer already over this stiff three miles. Sybarite has won over further and has been a revelation since connections abandoned his chasing campaign and returned him to hurdles last winter. After a poor run at Ascot, he was stepped up to three miles and his form figures at this trip and further since read 2411. This is only his ninth hurdles start, and he looks unexposed to me off a mark of OR125. He appeals as the type to progress again this season and his trainer tends to have his horses ready sooner rather than later.
The booking of a top 5lb claimer to ride Abolitionist takes the eye. He is a veteran of 27 career starts already despite only being a six year old, but he has improved over the summer since stepping up to marathon distances and there might still be more to come off a mark of OR115. He stayed on strongly at the finish behind Thekingofconnemara last time out, and it is interesting his three hurdles wins have come in big fields, including a 1/24 at Punchestown which, like Cheltenham, is a very stiff track. He has been supported this morning, but I think he'll drift a little on the exchanges before the off and I'd hope to get a bit better than the current 14/1 on offer by playing at Betfair SP.
Profit & loss: day: +33.00 / month: +74.80 / year: +269.35
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