8.50 Wolverhampton Opera Buff 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
It's been a truly awful week for our selections, but it is wrong to change tack during a losing run just because you haven't had a winner in a while, and I've had a decent each-way bet on this horse because I think it's the most overpriced animal I've seen this week.
Opera Buff is 1/26 on his career, but he has been extremely consistent on the all weather since upped to staying trips and has posted career best efforts on the surface on his last two visits to Kempton. His last run is actually worth forgetting: the horse was disappointed at being held up, and is much better when allowed to stride along and get into a decent rhythm in front or close to the head of affairs. He nevertheless posted an RPR of 80, but he previous Kempton run in June is the really interesting one. He was allowed his own way in front at Kempton, and beat off all but Spice Fair in a tight finish over two miles. He gave Spice Fair 1lb that day, and the winner has won twice since and is now rated OR87. Saborido, the fifth, has won twice since and finished second to the improving Mick Duggan. That Kempton race was a 0-85 like his last run, and was much better contested than tonight's race. Wall Street Boss looks a fair favourite, but this represents a drop in class to 0-80 company and the top three in the market may not merit their current ratings. Stentorian hasn't been seen in around 18 months, Sunblazer has been disappointing lately over hurdles, and Investissement won a pretty bad seller in June and was well beaten next time out. Kingscombe looks a Southwell specialist, Lineman doesn't look to be a strong stayer at this trip, and Tappanappa isn't one to trust. Admirable Duque is a very decent yardstick and should run his race, but he looks handicapped close to his best on this surface.
Opera Buff has a big weight to carry, but there isn't much pace on here and his jockey Irineu Goncalves should be able to get him striding along at the head of affairs and into a decent rhythm. This intermediate 14 furlong trip looks perfect for Opera Buff, and if his jockey gets his fractions right I think he could be hard to pass if reproducing anything near his June form. The jockey seems to have an uncomplicated style and is quite tidy, so I have no reservations on that front. We'll play each-way and win.
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Afternoon bets:
An additional afternoon bet may follow before 3.00pm, we may also have evening bets today released before 5.30pm.
1.30 Haydock Carraig Rock 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 (Skybet, Sporting Bet, Bet Victor, William Hill)
Haydock has been heavily watered up until Monday, and took 12mm of rain on Tuesday as well as a shower this morning. Time and again the clerk of the course at Haydock messes about with the ground and it tends to result in slower than advertised conditions. It is often hard to make ground from behind when this scenario ensues, and strong travelling, prominent horses seem to be favoured. Carraig Rock has a good draw with which to get a handy early position, and he seemed to handle soft ground well over course and distance in June when he posted an RPR of 71 (tenderly handled and seemingly out to get a handicap mark). He runs off OR68 today and looks to be open to improvement. Hughie Morrison's string are in very good form, and the selection ran better than his finishing position suggests at Kempton last time out, travelling strongly but not really getting home over two miles. He looks overpriced in a middling looking field, and I'm further enthused by his jockey's 20% strike rate at this track.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -128.50 / year: +219.55
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