Just a note that I'm still working on our winter schedule. I had promised it for Wednesday but opening up the fixture list was a bit of a Pandora's Box and it's taking longer than I had anticipated.
1pt each-way double on today's selections - 13/2 and 7/2 generally guaranteed.
3.20 Hexham Mister Wall Street 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)
Many of Lucinda Russell's horses are running below form, and as a result I'd be quite keen to take on Clondaw Knight at a short price, under a big weight on his seasonal reappearance. Mister Wall Street is a three time Hexham winner who seems to love this place, and is value for much more than the winning margin of his chase win here in June, as he was dossing in the closing stages. His Bangor run in July suggests to me that he might make a better chaser than hurdler. He went down fighting against two decent horses who have followed up since,Valleyofmilan and Prince De Marais. He is 2lb lower now than he was for that run, which strikes me as a bit of a quirk of handicapping, leaving him only 4lb higher than the relatively comfortable course win in June. He is no superstar, but he looks the best handicapped horse in this race to me by some way, and this race may have been his target for the last few weeks - his recent Sedgefield spin looked like a pipe opener after a few weeks break. With the dead eight lining up, he looks a very attractive each-way proposition at the prices.
4.20 Chepstow Dormello Mo 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed)
There is enough ego and will to win within the Paul Nicholls camp that I'm sure they would have wanted to target this decent prize of £25,000 with a decent horse. Dormello Mo looks a classy type of horse who will be well suited to this galloping track in my view, based on the evidence of his Sandown win last season. Things didn't go right for him at Newbury after that, but he always looked like a bit of a "next year's horse" and he may have been put away after that with a race like this in mind, his trainer knowing that a hurdles mark of OR130 is well within his capabilities. Conditions should be fine here and I'm not a big fan of Dawalan, Henderson's representative. Manhattan Swing looked a bit awkward in the closing stages last time and I don't think he's certain to follow that run up, while Bertimont looks flattered by his Fairyhouse run (sat handy in a race run at a crawl) and I'm not tempted even with his trainer in good form. This could be between the top two in the betting and although Dawalan has the better jockey, the selection appeals as better handicapped and perhaps the horse with more potential. He is also around twice the price of Dawalan and we'll support him as a result.
Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +22.50 / year: +217.05
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