Saturday 18th October 2014

One selection for this evening.

6.15 Wolverhampton Poetic Choice 5pts win @ 15/2 (Skybet, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Poetic Choice is by Byron, whose progeny are more profitable to back on artificial surfaces than on turf. The selection won impressively over six furlongs here last winter, and generally performed with credit until she went off the boil early this year. She rediscovered her form this summer, but seems best around this time of year and I'm hopeful she can carry on improving on this surface today. She hasn't raced yet on Tapeta but early indications are that many horses who handle polytrack perform to a similar level on the new surface. Based on her summer form, she appeals as well handicapped off OR75, and if she proves to be better on synthetics as I think she might be, then she can handle this field this evening. She has top weight to carry, but looks the best horse in the race and it looks a good piece of placement keeping her against her own sex. 13/2+ is fair and the booking of Luke Morris is a positive. A wide draw shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience over this trip.

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Afternoon bets:

Nice to see Sybarite do the job at 10/1 yesterday, he was good value for the winning margin and will win again before the season is out in my view.

Another cracking day's racing today, and we have two interests this afternoon. Possible evening bets before 5.30pm, details either way as usual.

2.35 Cheltenham Croco Bay 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 22/1 Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Current connections paid £70,000 for Croco Bay at Cheltenham in May, and they have presumably sent him to Ben Case with the intention of winning a big handicap with him. It is interesting he was sent to Galway for the festival there, and he ran well into third on ground that would have been too soft for him. He didn't find much at Worcester last time out, but it was an unusual run because he travelled well into the contest before not finding as much as looked likely close home. He was prominent in the market that day and one has to assume connections feel he is better than his current mark. Perhaps a bigger field and step up in trip could be the answer, and I think this looks a winnable race if he suddenly sparks into life. His stable done really well last year with the hurdler Deep Trouble, and they are a force to be reckoned with given the right ammunition. Daryl Jacob retains the ride here, and I just wonder if he'll bury him out the back and bring him into the race as late as possible. Croco Bay's jumping is very solid, and that will stand him in good stead around here. We're taking a chance on a relative dark horse, but that is certainly factored into the odds and if today's conditions bring about improvement, the price might look silly after the race.

4.05 Ascot Ruler Of The World 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 / 13/2 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365, Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral all pay 1/4 1-2-3)

Ruler Of The World comes into this race off the back of a light campaign and he appears to have been aimed at this contest some time in advance. His Prix Foy win showed he has trained on as a four year old, and he got closer to Treve in this year's Arc than he did as a three year old. He followed his Arc run last year with an excellent third in this race, pulling well clear with Faarh and Cirrus Des Aigles and only giving best by three quarters of a length. That came after a long campaign - his first season to race - and I think there was additional merit in the performance given the wide trip he suffered. He has a much better draw today and connections will surely want to ride him prominently. Last year's race was slowly run due to the Godolphin pacemaker Hunter's Light setting easy fractions, but with Noble Mission in the line up I expect the pace to be at least fair - I wouldn't be surprised to see Joseph O'Brien make it himself if he needs to. Track trip and ground are perfect for the selection, he is a proper Group 1 horse unlike many of these, and I think he can fight this out with Cirrus Des Aigles. At the prices and with 1/4 odds being offered by many bookmakers, it makes sense to play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +58.80 / year: +253.35