5.40 Kempton Just Marion 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
Just Marion has had a long season but her trainer Dave Evans isn't afraid of keeping his juveniles busy. She was even sent over to Ireland in early September, where she ran okay, but her form tailed off a bit after that. However, her recent Wolverhampton run was more promising and she finished out the seven furlongs well having got behind and been under pressure for most of the race. She was quite tenderly handled in the closing stages and there was probably a bit more in the locker. As a result I'm interested in her here, stepped up another furlong in trip and dropped 3lb in the handicap. This race is full of potential improvers but they aren't guaranteed to find stones for their handicap debuts and I can pick holes in most of them. Just Marion gets George Baker in the saddle for the first time and I'm hoping he rides her forward, because she isn't a turn of foot horse. If she runs to her best form, she can go close and she is a few points too big at 20/1. We'll play each-way and win.
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Afternoon bets:
One bet for this afternoon, with possible evening bets - details before 5.30pm either way.
4.20 Ludlow Old Pals Act 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)
This is a poor contest, and many of these have been failing to win in bad summer jumping contests, have been out of form, or look set to be unsuited by this sharp track and quickish ground (in the case of Wind And Waves). Old Pals Act's Market Rasen form would suggest that a sharp right handed track suits him well, and despite looking a quirky sort, he seems to be improving and looks overpriced at 5/1 here. He has gone up 9lb for his last win, but connections seem to be finding the key to him and this is a really clever piece of placement. It is essentially a poor 0-120 on a track that should suit. As a six year old son of Presenting, the selection is probably only finding his feet with the racing game and there should be plenty of improvement to come. He certainly travelled as if that would be the case at Market Rasen, and I think perhaps the 54 day break since could be a positive. Richie McLernon retains the ride, and his quiet style seems to suit the horse really well. Johnjo O'Neill hasn't had many winners in the past week outside of his Cheltenham double, and I think that might be part of the reason this horse isn't attracting interest. He looks the most progressive horse in here by some way and if he can continue his good recent form, he should go close here.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +53.20 / year: +247.75
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