1pt each-way double on today's selections, 13/2 and 11/1 or similar generally available guaranteed.
5.45 Kempton Speedy Writer 5pts win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 Bet Victor, guaranteed) - WON
Speedy Writer is a son of Byron, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on polytrack greatly exceeds his progeny's ratio on turf. The selection is a four year old, but he is an interesting sort of horse in that he has ridden by amateurs quite a lot, and it may be he is a nervous type of horse. He has also tended to weaken out of his races having travelled well (see two of his three Kempton runs) but that pattern changed last time out. He was given a nice quiet ride over seven furlongs and stayed on strongly to the line under tender handling. It is hard to know whether that flattered him, but I find it interesting he is sent back to Kempton today and that Dane O'Neill is booked. He is entered in a very winnable 0-60, and this has the look of "today is the day" about it. The yard's horses have been running very well of late and O'Neill rode a double here last night (including Daaree, which beat our selection Masterpaver into second). We'll play to win and use him in an each-way double.
6.15 Kempton Grand Proposal 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
Grand Proposal is by Exceed And Excel, whose progeny go really well on polytrack and tend to improve for the switch to the surface. His dam is a fibresand winner who is a half sister to Admirable Duque, a prolific horse on this surface. The selection was the only one to make inroads from the rear in a Beverley maiden that suited front runners last time out, and I don't think the track really suited him. He did travel strongly, and I think he should improve for the switch to this surface. He has a wide draw to overcome but that shouldn't be an issue over the mile trip. Many of these have question marks over the trip, or well being (New Brunswick for example, tends to weaken late on). I think the selection looks a very decent price and should run well. The handicapper dropped him 4lb for the Beverley run which sees him qualify for 0-70 company and the slight drop in grade and surface switch can do the trick. He is too big at anything in double figures, and I like the application of cheekpieces (interestingly, Admirable Duque won the first time he wore them) and the booking of Jamie Spencer.
Profit & loss: day: +25.50 / month: +20.50 / year: +215.05
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