6.30 Wolverhampton Steelriver 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON
This is a bet that will probably be won or lost at the start of the contest. Steelriver sometimes starts slowly, and if he gets a poor early position over this seven furlong trip with the first bend coming up quickly, then the likelihood is he will struggle to win. However, I find the booking of Robert Winston really interesting here. He is an intelligent jockey who can generally (although not always) be depended upon to do the right thing: he seems to have an awareness of rail biases, pace and other such intricacies that many jockeys don't factor in. Steelriver ran a really good race here last time, and had the field pretty much cooked before fading badly late on. That was after he missed the break and raced keenly, and all of this off the back of a break. It seems safe to assume he just got tired late on, and although he is up in the weights today, I would suggest he will improve for this trainer, who is having a very good year. There are quite a few hold up horses in here, and I'm hoping Winston can sit in third or fourth off a slow pace, and send his mount for home getting an early run on the likes of Plucky Dip and Footstepsintherain, both of whom are finishers. If Steelriver can get that decent early position, I'd make him a 2/1 shot to go on and win the race based on that last run. I'm happy to take the chance on him at 9/2 with the jockey booking an important variable is deciding that he is worth the risk.
Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +45.00 / year: +239.55
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