7.20 Kempton Just Marion 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Dave Evans likes to let his juveniles learn their job on the track, and that's evidenced by Just Marion's 14 career runs to date. She has won twice, but seems to be getting the hang of the game judging by her last two starts. She won well over this distance at Wolverhampton, responding really well for pressure just as her half sister Carcinetto always did, and she followed that run up with a really good run in an Irish sales race at the Curragh against a much better calibre of horse than she meets this evening. After becoming outpaced over the 6 1/2 furlong trip, she stayed on really well despite not getting a clear run on two occasions and she was perhaps value for the RPR of 65 she was awarded. She runs off OR59 this evening and looks to be well ahead of that mark. Adam Kirby is a really positive jockey booking, and if she can hold her position early from stall five I think she has every chance of beating this lot. They are mostly made up of horses expected to improve for their debut on the surface / handicap debut / for the step up in trip. The selection is proven on the surface, well handicapped, and sees out the trip strongly. On that basis she appeals plenty at the current prices.
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Afternoon bets:
Just one selection for this afternoon. Evening bets for Kempton will follow before 5.30pm.
4.00 Redcar Thornaby Princess 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
This looks a bit less competitive than the size of the field suggests, with mostly exposed older horses lining up against a largely out of form bunch of three year olds. The fact that Eland Ally is generally second or third favourite off the back of a second placed finish in this race last year, having not looked like troubling the judge lately, tells its own story.
When I handicapped the race, as always I checked the weather conditions first, and noted that Redcar applied 2mm of water last Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. They've also had 2.5mm overnight officially, although I have suspicions it might have been a bit more. I think those factors, combined with the big field here and presence of a number of front runners, should set this contest up for a closer and Thornaby Princess fits the bill.
The selection is described by her trainer Marjorie Fife as a hot headed filly, but she is also talented and she looked open to improvement when winning at Ripon in June. That was over six furlongs, but she travels very strongly and has been to keen over that trip on a number of occasions. Her two August runs over five furlongs offered hope of more to come. She was staying on really well at Doncaster before being hampered when a horse came across her, costing her all chance. Her Beverley 2nd behind Margret's Gift was a good run, but that track may not have suited and she was again inconvenienced by a horse running across her. Her Newcastle run is best forgotten, she got no cover over six furlongs and may have needed a bit of a rest.
I think a 33 day break might be in her favour today. She had been off a long time in June when she won, and could be the type of horse best after a few weeks off. She hasn't had any chances yet in a proper big field sprint over five furlongs, and I think it could be the making of her. She is reunited today with Russ Kennemore, whose record on her reads 1,2. Drawn in stall five, the best of the opposition are around her and pace angles in Little Eli and Orient Class. Marjorie Fife's horses have been running well in recent days (including a sprinter who went close at Musselburgh) and at the prices the selection makes plenty of appeal. I'm keen to get a decent each-way return on this if she runs in the first four, and I like the shape of the race for an each-way punt - some of these just don't look good enough on this year's form or may be inconvenienced by the way the race is run. Therefore we'll have three points each-way and a point win, which is a little bigger than our average outlay.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -108.50 / year: +239.55
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