7.55 Kempton Masterpaver 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 / 15/2 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Masterpaver ran a fine race over course and distance last week behind to finish second behind the unexposed Daaree, giving the older horse 5lbs. On reflection, it was Masterpaver's first run in five weeks, and he seems to be a horse who thrives on his racing. That was a career best performance on ratings, and he turns out today of the same handicap mark and seems to have every chance. Although there is potential in here, I don't see anything quite up to Daaree's standard and the selection seems to have been a little bit ignored at the prices. I can't see why Double Discount and Jazz Master deserve to be as short as they are, and I'd make the selection more like 11/2 than his current 15/2+. We'll back him each-way and win.
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Afternoon bets:
One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets to follow before 5.30pm.
2.40 Towcester Kitchapoly 6pts win @ 9/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed)
I find the market drift on Kitchapoly this morning hard to fathom. He has already won on his chase debut, performing quite well and never really looking in trouble despite the small field, and has fitness on his side against two rivals making their chase debuts under rules (one of them admittedly can go well fresh). He gets all the 4yo allowances and has the best jockey in the race on his back, and is trained by a stable whose chasers have a 25% strike rate at this track over the course of the last five seasons. I don't think Knight Of Pleasure is a star, and Garrahalish might be more of a danger. He will probably want further in time, though, and the likelihood of a slow pace here will suit the selection, who has a high cruising speed and should be able to get into a decent jumping rhythm. 2/1+ appeals and he will be our first jumps bet of the season.
Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +16.50 / year: +211.05
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