Sunday 9th November 2014

One selection for Sunday.

2.25 Navan Special Tiara 5pts win @ 8/1 / 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A run on the flat, one over hurdles, and a recent chase run haven't seen Special Tiara rediscover his best form, but he has had plausible excuses for all three runs and I think this Grade 2 is well within his compass should he be able to put it all together today. It seems Andrew Lynch has chosen to ride Days Hotel, but I wouldn't read too much into that and although I'm not a big fan of Brian Hayes, a change in jockey can sometimes help a horse and the selection might just benefit from a different pair of hands today. At his best, this is a Grade 1 two miler, but he seems to have been difficult to train. De Bromhead's stable are in fine form, though, and he is a trainer I greatly respect in terms of his ability to get difficult horses right. Special Tiara scoped badly after his last race, but he jumped really well before that and there was definite promise to be taken from the run. A reproduction of his Sandown form behind Sire De Grugy would see him go close here and there's no reason why he shouldn't improve for his last run in terms of fitness. Running two in the one race is unusual for this trainer, and I find it interesting he has chosen to declare both Days Hotel and the selection. Anything 7/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: +202.75

Saturday 8th November 2014

Two races of interest for us today.

3.15 Wincanton

Bertimont 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fox Norton 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Irving could be the class act here, but it has paid in recent weeks to take on Paul Nicholls' horses first time out and perhaps we can get him beaten today. Bertimont hurdled very impressively when winning at Chepstow last time out, and although he was handed a ridiculously easy lead the manner of his victory was impressive. The runner up has run well since, and it might just be that the handicapper has been lenient in his treatment of a progressive horse. The other horse who makes appeal is Fox Norton. His trainer says he's likely to come on for the run, but the same was said of last year's winner Melodic Rendezvous and it didn't stop him winning impressively. Fox Norton is a very classy horse, one of last year's best juveniles and a horse who can go very well fresh. He hasn't been easy to train, but he could be a stone better than his current handicap mark in my estimation and he is a danger to all here. Conditions will suit him and he is too big at double figure prices.

3.25 Kelso Native Spa 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Michael Smith's horses have largely been out of form, but he had a horse run much better the other day at Wetherby and his Native Spa looks well handicapped on a piece of form at Newcastle last season, if he is able to reproduce something in that ballpark on his seasonal reappearance. Smith generally has his horses fit first time up, and he does do well at Kelso: he boasts a 21% strike rate over the course of the last five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +43.13 to the unit stake. Native Spa looked like he still had growing to do last season, and it might just be he improves for the summer on his back. Brian Hughes takes the ride and anything around 9/1+ looks good value. This is a winnable race - most of his rivals haven't achieved much - and anything that shows a modicum of improvement will be in with a chance of winning it.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +207.75

Friday 7th November 2014

Just one bet for this evening.

5.10 Wolverhampton Speightstown's Kid 5pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Speightstown's Kid is an in and out performer, who can follow up an abysmal run with a win that can make him look like an improving performer. He had no chance of winning the claimer he was entered in last time, but he may have needed the run after a break anyway and it is probably no surprise he didn't show up much. He has been entered in a winnable handicap here, and the booking of a very promising claiming rider who is a steal for his 3lbs  really takes the eye. This should be run to suit, with some pace up front likely to come from Little Elie, and if the selection can travel and pounce then double figure prices could look silly after the race. He is as likely to finish last as he is first, he's that type of horse but he does represent value here. Take anything 9/1 or better.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and evening bets to follow, released before 4.30pm.

3.00 Musselburgh Buy Back Bob 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 3rd @ 6/1

Buy Back Bob is quite consistent  when he is right, and from seven hurdles runs he has hit the frame five times, with two soft ground flops the aberrations on that profile. He travels well, but has failed to find as much as seemed likely on a couple of occasions in the past. However his recent Southwell run was decent and with his yard in good form, he makes appeal here on good ground over a relatively easy two mile trip. He looks well handicapped off OR117 too, having run to a mark 4lbs above that on his last two starts. He cost only £6,000 bought out of Tony Martin's yard, but the recent run suggests it could be money well spent and the likely decent pace of today's race should suit him. This is the type of horse I like to back each-way: he is well handicapped, has good recent form, and tends more often than not to give his running, although he needs everything to drop right to win. 3pts each-way pays just less than 4pts win and it looks the smart way to stake the selection.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +0.00 / year: +218.75

Wednesday 5th November 2014

One race of interest this afternoon. Possible evening bets will follow, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.15 Chepstow 

Eastern Witness 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Theregoesthetruth 3pts win @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is an interesting low grade handicap hurdle, which will be run on heavy ground. Venetia Williams is the master trainer when it comes to horses running in these conditions, and her Eastern Witness looks to be worth chancing at a double figure price here. The selection is bred to go on this kind of ground, and won an Irish point to point on soft, but he achieved very little in maiden hurdles last year. His trainer done a decent job of getting him handicapped on a workable mark of OR99, and it is interesting she perseveres. The drop back in trip is interesting: he showed promise on his final start at Huntingdon at around this distance, before being put away. Whether there were breathing or other issues, he was never really right and connections done the right thing in putting him away in early March. It may be that he simply doesn't have much ability, but his trainer isn't knowing for keeping bad horses and this looks a good piece of placement. Aidan Coleman takes the right.

Theregoesthetruth represents a stable who are in very good form, with a number of horses outrunning market expectation in the last few days. The selection saw the track as a four year old in Ireland, but was off the track until her reappearance at Ffos Las last month. She ran well and hurdled proficiently, but her jockey noticeably took a pull on her around three out, and she was ridden very tenderly thereafter - in fact, she made her only jumping mistake of the race after being eased to a slower pace. She most likely did get tired late on, and the time of the race wasn't impressive, but it was a nice reintroduction against horses better than what she faces today. She is by Flemensfirth, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground is strong, and she should handle conditions today. A good 3lb claimer takes the ride and she is also worth betting on her handicap debut.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +4.00 / year: +222.75

Tuesday 4th November 2014

One bet for this afternoon, possible evening bets to follow before 5.00pm.

2.15 Exeter God's Own 5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 8/1

God's Own has been cleverly campaigned by Tom George, in that he retains his Novice status for this season having won the Grade 1 Novice chase at Punchestown on May 1st. He looks well handicapped here with Balder Succes, receiving 7lb from a rival whom he beat off levels on his last start. There seemed to be no fluke about that result, although he got a great ride from Barry Geraghty and raced on the best of the ground all the way around. The extra 1 1/2 furlongs today should be in his favour: he sees out two miles well. The selection also seems better racing clockwise, as I pointed out when advising him in May. He has run well on both his seasonal reappearances (hampered and unseated when going well on last year's seasonal debut) and his trainer is in form. Indeed, his trainer was responsible for the runner up in this race last year Module, who was only beaten a head by Somersby. I'm not a fan of Hinterland with Paul Nicholls' horses tending to need a run, and the selection looks better weighted than Balder Succes. Cue Card will most likely need this after injury, and the danger will perhaps be Somersby. I think connections will have targeted this race for God's Own and he looks too big at 13/2+.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +228.75

Monday 3rd November 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

2.15 Wolverhampton Pearl Noir 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Pearl Noir ran better than his finishing position suggests last time out in a six furlong class 5 event at Lingfield. The selection was in front coming into the final bend, but blew the turn completely in what looked a lapse of concentration to this observer. He hasn't won over six furlongs yet, but two wins since July and a couple of decent performances in between suggest to me that he is an improving sprinter at the age of four. He rallied well at Lingfield and wasn't beaten far into fifth, but can still race in class 6 events of this mark of OR59. The 5lb claimer who rode him that day is replaced today by Luke Morris, who knows the horse well. I would expect him to sit on the lead and stack them up in behind, or perhaps forfeit the lead and sit handy, to conserve stamina over this distance. He has enough speed and is in good enough form to beat a poor bunch of sprinters here, who are largely out of form or just gearing up for winter campaigns. The 11/2 generally available looks fair for this class dropper.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -30.00 / year: +188.75

Saturday 1st November 2014

Two bets for us at Santa Anita this evening.

9.43 Santa Anita - Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Selection: The Great War 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 1/4 odds paid)

Aidan O'Brien won this race having stepped up Johannesburg from six furlongs, and he can repeat the feat with dirt-bred The Great War this evening. The selection is by War Front, whose progeny go very well on dirt, and his form in Ireland is really strong. His last time out win was achieved without too much fuss and was probably just a preparation for this. He is drawn in stall 4 which gives him a good chance of getting a good trip, and Ryan Moore is the right man to have on top. I thought he was too big in double figure prices and with 1/4 odds paid by most bookmakers, he appeals as an each-way selection.

12.35AM Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Classic 

Selection: Tonalist 5pts win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Tonalist was ultra impressive last time out, when defeating Zivo in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. As a Belmont Stakes winner, he has proven stamina, and my feeling is that this will be run at a manic pace and will bring in the closers. Bayern and Moreno in particular are almost certain to go hard, and looking at the draw I can see an overload of the lesser fancied horses trying to get an early position. This could turn into an absolute dogfight down the stretch, a la Drosselmeyer in 2011. Tonalist appeals as the type who can do his best work late, and with the right trip into the race he could be hard to hold off.

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Afternoon Bets:

Weybridge Light was hampered quite badly on the home turn last night, but he battled on gamely to land place money for us. Dark Days had no issues with hanging or ducking in and won it handsomely.

Today's racing is fantastic, and we have three afternoon interests.

Please note Breeder's Cup selections and analysis will be sent before 6.30pm.

1.45 Ascot Cocktails At Dawn 5pts win @ 7/2 (Skybet, 888 Sport, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Bright, Racebets, BruceBetting.com)

This is a decent Novice's Handicap, but despite the fact that Cocktails At Dawn is making his debut over fences, I think he is good value at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles in my view, and it suggests he is thought to be a chaser given that he is switched to fences after just five hurdles starts. He oozed class at Kempton in April when he made light work of a fair field of hurdlers and probably just bounced six days later when turned over at Chepstow. This trip and right handed track should be perfect for him, and his trainer tends to have his novices ready for this meeting. Monkey Kingdom probably wants the ground softer, and Keltus hasn't looked a natural chaser thus far. Garrahalish would be my idea of the danger. He is a fine jumper, but I don't expect them to go a manic gallop here and Cocktails At Dawn can win this with his class and speed. The presence of Barry Geraghty in the saddle is obviously a massive plus.

2.20 Ascot Claret Cloak 5pts win @ 13/2 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm not sure Next Sensation wants to go right handed, and although he was a very good novice I'd be happy to take him on here. Bellenos tends to throw in the odd stinker, and I don't think Manyriverstocross is that well handicapped. Ulck Du Lin looks well treated, but Claret Cloak represents a stable in very good form and he won on his seasonal debut last year.It appears that there is some pace on with Next Sensation likely to lead, and that will suit Claret Cloak well. It is hard to argue that he is well handicapped with Next Sensation based on Cheltenham form, but I think he is more likely to be suited by race conditions and more likely to be tuned up. With Leighton Aspell in the saddle - he had a fine season last year and is riding better than ever - he appeals at 13/2 in what looks a tight handicap.

2.30 Down Royal Ma Filleule 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There is very little wrong with Ma Filleule's form from last season, and her Aintree win confirmed she is a very good chaser. It is interesting Nicky Henderson sends her over here for a race the English have traditionally farmed, and she looks well treated by the race conditions with a 7lb allowance. The booking of Daryl Jacob is intriguing. He gave Kauto Stone a fine ride in this race a couple of years ago, and Henderson has wisely made use of the fact that Paul Nicholls no longer requires him. We've already seen Sam Twiston-Davies usurped by his father's horses when riding Paul Nicholls' hotpots, and I expect this theme to punctuate this National Hunt season somewhat. Jacob could very well land a satisfying victory today. Most of these won't be fully tuned up, but I think the likely moderate pace over this distance, on ground which took some rain yesterday, will suit the mare better than anything else in the race and she can pay a compliment to Holywell by winning this valuable Grade 1.

Profit & loss: day: -25.00 / month: -25.00 / year: +193.75

Friday 31st October 2014

Two selections for us this evening and an each-way double, which leads us in to what is traditionally a huge weekend for us. We will have afternoon bets tomorrow, and evening bets to follow after that, with the focus being on the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - 33/1 / 20/1 guaranteed with Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, 25/1 and 16/1 guaranteed next best)

5.25 Wolverhampton Miguela McGuire 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

As befitting of a 0-60 handicap, this isn't a great contest and there aren't many here who could be called progressive, except perhaps Crown Pleasure, who improved at this track last time out. However, she took her time getting close to the leaders having had a dream passage after being switched off early doors, so she makes no appeal to me at 9/2. Keeper's Ring is the one that could be better than these, she got the dodgy "third run for a handicap mark" ride at Kempton last time out, but it's still hard to know if she'll make a decent racehorse when the gun is put to her head. I do find the pricing up of these events funny, on occasion, and it is interesting to me that Tohaveandtohold is generally 12/1 for this, despite not having done a tap in her four race career, and Miguela McGuire is a 33/1 shot in places, having recorded her two best efforts on her last two starts, posting ratings which would give her a decent chance here off a mark of OR53. 

The selection represents Eric Alston, who does get winners at Wolves, and  has had two horses outrun big odds in recent days. Alston had a virus in his yard during the summer and most of his string were off the boil until September. This filly ran a really nice race at Hamilton in September (her first start since July) in a race that worked out well, and backed up that effort with a better one at Chester 5 days later, in a strong maiden where she was sent off an unconsidered 50/1 shot. She was leading the three OR80+ types coming into the home straight, before fading into a well beaten fourth when their class told, but it was a good run on figures and she was clear of the dross. She showed good speed on both of those recent starts, and with little obvious pace in this contest, she might just get a freebie on the lead from stall 3. Their is evidence in her pedigree that synthetics should suit her, and indeed she recorded a decent effort on her only all weather run, at this track last October, when she was absolutely levelled with kickback in a decent 2yo handicap, but ran all the way to the line, having been hampered into the bargain. With fillies, you sometimes have to spot the ones who enjoy racing, and equally those who aren't interested in the game. Miguela Maguire has looked a willing filly on her last two starts, and she has been entered in a winnable race today. She is 9lbs higher than she was for her Chester run, but it still puts her in with a chance against this lot and it is interesting Paddy Mathers makes the trip to ride her (his only mount on the card). 25/1+ looks fair, and although she may not win, she has been underestimated in the market and I expect her to outrun her odds.

6.25 Wolverhampton Weybridge Light 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

At the prices, I'm keen to take on Dark Days here, given how he hung left in the straight last time out.

Weybridge Light won a 1m4f handicap here last year, from a mark of OR46, having done the summer jumping rounds before being returned to polytrack. He is a dependable sort of horse, with a strike rate under rules of 6/59, a shade better than one in ten, and decent for a horse of moderate ability. He runs tonight over the extended two mile trip, but there isn't much pace in the race and I think it could set up for the selection, who has won over trips between 12 and 14 furlongs on the all weather. He seems to be a better horse on synthetics, and connections have done well to get him back down to his last winning mark by campaigning him on the turf. It doesn't seem to have been spotted, but the circumstances tonight are remarkably similar to those under which he won here last year. Jimmy Quinn takes the ride, and with the dead eight lining up it makes sense to support him each-way and win. I chalked him up around the 11/1 mark, and anything around 20/1 is too big. We'll also include him in an each-way double with Miguela McGuire.

Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75

Thursday 30th October 2014

Just one bet for this afternoon. Evening bets will follow before 5.00pm. (we won't have any interest in Kempton's first two races).

3.20 Lingfield Cascading 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed - Ladbrokes pay 1/4 1-2-3)

Racing prominently has been an advantage in this race over the course of the last two years, since Lingfield's track was relaid. Cascading has never raced on polytrack, which has to be a negative, but I think that is factored into her price and her run style might give her an advantage here. She likes to lead, and with Jim Crowley on board (17% at the track) and a reasonable draw in stall 7, she should be able to get a good early position. As a three year old, she gets a decent weight allowance of her rivals and it is somewhat surprising she is the price she is given her age group's good record in the race. She is the second highest rated 3yo, 1lb behind the 6/4fav Hidden Gold, and 7lbs clear of her next best 3yo rival.

The selection has improved this year, posting a strong effort over 12 furlongs at Newbury in August (a race that has worked out well)  before setting too quick a pace at Doncaster last time out on rain softened ground. Her trainer's horses tend to run well on artificial surfaces, including on their first try, and I am happy to give her the benefit of the doubt with the change of surface - indeed I think this sharp, turning track with a downhill section will suit her. One race a month since April probably hasn't been too taxing, and if she can reproduce her Newbury figure, she is in with every chance of winning this. We'll play each-way and win - please note Ladbrokes will pay 1/4 odds 1-2-3.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75

Wednesday 29th October 2014

Two selections and an each-way double for Kempton:

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 10/1 and 7/1 generally guaranteed.

4.55 Kempton Snow Conditions 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

This looks a weak enough contest, but I feel there is some value to be had in backing Snow Conditions. She has only race twice on polytrack, trailing in last here on her debut, but then improving on her seasonal debut over 11 furlongs here to finish second behind Nyanza, who has had an excellent season and is now rated 19lbs higher than she was when beating Snow Conditions having gotten first run on her in a messy race where the leader went tear-assing out in front and was ignored by most of the jockeys until the home turn. She was fully six lengths ahead of Assoluta, today's 9/2 second favourite, that day giving her 6lbs and the selection is 2lbs better off with that rival today. Snow Conditions has picked up a race since, at Brighton, but tends to be a bit in and out. A first time hood didn't have any effect in September (after her win), and heavy ground was no use to her last time out. She travelled very well on this surface on her last attempt on it, and it may just be she ends up a polytrack specialist. Her tendency to race prominently these days is no problem on this tight track, and the draw in stall 4 is kind. If she runs up to her best, I feel she has to go close, and we'll play each-way and win.

5.25 Kempton Understory 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

It would be unfair to call Understory a One Trick Pony, but that said, he has achieved all of his six wins by making all over trips between 8.5 and 10 furlongs, and five of those wins have been on polytrack. His handicap mark has dropped quite a bit lately, but there were signs of life at Lingfield last time out, when he was able to dominate Sexy Secret and most of the rest of his field before he tired markedly late on to finish fourth. It is interesting he came on a lot for his first run of the winter last year, finding around 8lbs for the benefit of his first run, and if he repeats the pattern this year it puts him right in with a shout here. The draw has been kind to him, and Hayley Turner (who has won on him twice) is making the trip down from Nottingham to ride him (it won't hurt that she rode a winner at Nottingham). He may face competition for the lead, but he looks a faster horse than Pannetone and Classic Mission, and if things go way he could have this lot in trouble by the home turn. At 7/1, he makes plenty of appeal given the fair handicap mark, ideal race conditions, and poor quality of opposition.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +30.20 / year: +224.75

Monday 27th October 2014

Just one for today.

3.50 Ayr Streams Of Whiskey 6pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Fell twice in races won by Green Flag last year, but improved to win a decent Haydock contest in April before being put away for the summer. Streams Of Whiskey won first time out last year, and with his stable's horses in winning form I would suggest the selection will be tuned up enough for today's contest. The selection carries top weight, but he has won with 11-12 on his back before and with conditions ideal and the rain largely missing Ayr, the weight shouldn't be too much of a burden. I think the selection has a class edge on these rivals, and if his jumping holds up as well as it did at Haydock in April, he'll take an awful lot of beating. I'm surprised at his odds, he is a 10/3 shot in my book and I'd expect his price will contract on course. Take the early 9/2 for a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +43.20 / year: +237.75

Sunday 26th October 2014

One selection for Sunday.

3.15 Aintree Dreams Of Milan 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

As the Racing Post suggests, there are question marks about most of these with regard to track, trip or ground, and when the likes of the unreliable Peckhamecho is close to the top of the market, you know it's the type of race where bookmakers could get a result. Dreams Of Milan is the outsider of eight here, but he definitely stays the trip, definitely likes decent ground, and should have no problem with a flat, left handed galloping track. Connections have tried to make a chaser out of him, but he isn't a natural over the larger obstacles and doesn't seem a confident jumper. He showed very little at Carlisle last time out, but he was well punted which suggests connections at least felt he was fit. He has been long overdue a return to hurdles, and his current handicap mark of OR117 if very fair based on his best form in this sphere. First time blinkers are applied, which interests me straight away because Donald McCain has a very good record with runners in first time headgear. The selection has a featherweight on his back, and as a result Wilson Renwick takes the ride in place of Jason Maguire. With a new jockey, new headgear, and a switch back to the code under which he has been much more successful, there is every chance of an improved performance here. He makes plenty of appeal at 14/1+, and with the dead eight lining up, it makes sense to play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +49.20 / year: +243.75

Saturday 25th October 2014

One bet for this evening.

6.45 Wolverhampton The Great Gabrial 6pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

The Great Gabrial is something of a synthetics specialist, who travels strongly on fibresand / polytrack / Tapeta and has perhaps been unlucky not to pick up a race at Wolverhampton already. The selection pulled too hard last time over an extended mile, but ran a fine race in a stronger contest than this to finish third behind Tinghir. He looks well handicapped based on that run off a mark of OR86, and his draw in stall four is a positive over this trip. There seems to be pace on the cards which will be important to him, and I'd hope Jason Hart can sit prominent enough close to the pace and do his best work late on in the straight. 5/1 is fair with the favourite coming here off the back of a break, and Earth Drummer unproven on the surface.

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Afternoon bets:

A cracking days' racing today, with a couple of excellent jumps cards from Aintree and Chepstow our main focus. An evening update will follow before 5.30pm.

3.00 Aintree Edgardo Sol 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Edgardo Sol looks ovepriced here for a stable whose horses are in decent form. He seems to have been around for a while now, but is only a seven year old and in my view probably suffered a bit by being down the pecking order at Paul Nicholls' stable. I don't think he was always entered in the right races, and he appeals to me as the type of horse who might benefit for getting a bit more one-on-one attention in a smaller stable.He has won twice over fences at this course, including a very impressive win at the festival in April 2012. Good or good to soft ground seems to bring out the best in him, and he looks nicely handicapped off OR150. He disappointed in this race last year and spent the rest of his campaign hurdling, but he showed enough to suggest the fire still burns and I wouldn't rule out a renaissance under Emma Lavelle's care. The excellent Aidan Coleman rides, and I make Uxizandre (who rates the obvious danger) and this horse the best handicapped pair in the race. 12/1+ looks fair.

3.40 Aintree Burton Port 7pts win @ 10/3 (William Hill, guaranteed, 3/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

This is a cracking Veteran's Chase. I had a good look at it last night when Pigeon Island was 5/1 and better, and I have to say I expected the flood of money that has come given his handicap mark. I made my mind up to take him on with Burton Port provided the selection drifted to 11/4, and I'm very happy to have a decent stake on at 3/1+. I think the selection is the class horse of the race, and his graded form gives him the edge over his rivals off his mark of OR146. The main question to ask here is: have connections sent him here for a quiet spin around as part of an early Grand National campaign? The answer in my view is no. They have booked Jason Maguire, who isn't your typical hide-him-out-the-back type jockey. Rather, I think the owner likes a winner here and given the horse is now eligible for this type of race, why not try and land some prize money without the horse having a hard time? The key piece of form here is not the selections run behind Follow The Plan in the Betfred Bowl of 2012, but his Newbury run in March. Connections allowed him to bowl along and make his own running, using his high cruising speed, class to hold that speed for a long time, and solid jumping to get all his rivals in trouble - including Pigeon Island, who was receiving 13lbs. On heavy ground, Burton Port tired late on and gave best to a dour stayer of Venetia Williams. I think Jason Maguire will be told to make the running today, and I don't think Burton Port will tire on this ground, at a track he enjoys, against inferior rivals. Pigeon Island is undoubtedly well handicapped, but he is 1lb out of the weights and the jockey will either put up overweight, or will be riding at a weight that will leave him feeling pretty weak at the end of three miles and one furlong. He isn't an easy horse to win with, and although I think he will run his race, my reading of the Newbury form leads me to believe Burton Port should account for him. I actually think last year's renewal was poor, and with that in mind I don't fancy Hey Big Spender either. McMurrough and Lie Forrit both seem to want it softer although the latter would be the danger if he enjoys the return to chasing. 3/1+ on Burton Port is far too big here.

4.45 Chepstow Majala 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Tom George's horses have been running well, and I see no reason why Majala should be as big as 10/1 for a race he was second in last year, having set ridiculous fractions. He was thumped by Sire De Grugy that day, but the tactics employed didn't give him much of a chance and it is interesting Alain Cawley rides him today, having won on him at Perth in April, employing more restrained tactics. The selection goes well fresh, and is 6lb lower than he was for the race last year. There is no Sire De Grugy to contend with this time, and I would be happy to take on Valdez at this prices. I priced up Majala as a 6/1 shot tops, and I'm suite surprised he is available at these odds. We'll play each-way and win, which covers our stake and then some in the event of a place

Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: +55.20 / year: +249.75