Two selections for us this evening and an each-way double, which leads us in to what is traditionally a huge weekend for us. We will have afternoon bets tomorrow, and evening bets to follow after that, with the focus being on the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita.
5.25 Wolverhampton Miguela McGuire 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)
As befitting of a 0-60 handicap, this isn't a great contest and there aren't many here who could be called progressive, except perhaps Crown Pleasure, who improved at this track last time out. However, she took her time getting close to the leaders having had a dream passage after being switched off early doors, so she makes no appeal to me at 9/2. Keeper's Ring is the one that could be better than these, she got the dodgy "third run for a handicap mark" ride at Kempton last time out, but it's still hard to know if she'll make a decent racehorse when the gun is put to her head. I do find the pricing up of these events funny, on occasion, and it is interesting to me that Tohaveandtohold is generally 12/1 for this, despite not having done a tap in her four race career, and Miguela McGuire is a 33/1 shot in places, having recorded her two best efforts on her last two starts, posting ratings which would give her a decent chance here off a mark of OR53.
The selection represents Eric Alston, who does get winners at Wolves, and has had two horses outrun big odds in recent days. Alston had a virus in his yard during the summer and most of his string were off the boil until September. This filly ran a really nice race at Hamilton in September (her first start since July) in a race that worked out well, and backed up that effort with a better one at Chester 5 days later, in a strong maiden where she was sent off an unconsidered 50/1 shot. She was leading the three OR80+ types coming into the home straight, before fading into a well beaten fourth when their class told, but it was a good run on figures and she was clear of the dross. She showed good speed on both of those recent starts, and with little obvious pace in this contest, she might just get a freebie on the lead from stall 3. Their is evidence in her pedigree that synthetics should suit her, and indeed she recorded a decent effort on her only all weather run, at this track last October, when she was absolutely levelled with kickback in a decent 2yo handicap, but ran all the way to the line, having been hampered into the bargain. With fillies, you sometimes have to spot the ones who enjoy racing, and equally those who aren't interested in the game. Miguela Maguire has looked a willing filly on her last two starts, and she has been entered in a winnable race today. She is 9lbs higher than she was for her Chester run, but it still puts her in with a chance against this lot and it is interesting Paddy Mathers makes the trip to ride her (his only mount on the card). 25/1+ looks fair, and although she may not win, she has been underestimated in the market and I expect her to outrun her odds.
6.25 Wolverhampton Weybridge Light 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
At the prices, I'm keen to take on Dark Days here, given how he hung left in the straight last time out.
Weybridge Light won a 1m4f handicap here last year, from a mark of OR46, having done the summer jumping rounds before being returned to polytrack. He is a dependable sort of horse, with a strike rate under rules of 6/59, a shade better than one in ten, and decent for a horse of moderate ability. He runs tonight over the extended two mile trip, but there isn't much pace in the race and I think it could set up for the selection, who has won over trips between 12 and 14 furlongs on the all weather. He seems to be a better horse on synthetics, and connections have done well to get him back down to his last winning mark by campaigning him on the turf. It doesn't seem to have been spotted, but the circumstances tonight are remarkably similar to those under which he won here last year. Jimmy Quinn takes the ride, and with the dead eight lining up it makes sense to support him each-way and win. I chalked him up around the 11/1 mark, and anything around 20/1 is too big. We'll also include him in an each-way double with Miguela McGuire.
Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75
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