6.45 Wolverhampton The Great Gabrial 6pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)
The Great Gabrial is something of a synthetics specialist, who travels strongly on fibresand / polytrack / Tapeta and has perhaps been unlucky not to pick up a race at Wolverhampton already. The selection pulled too hard last time over an extended mile, but ran a fine race in a stronger contest than this to finish third behind Tinghir. He looks well handicapped based on that run off a mark of OR86, and his draw in stall four is a positive over this trip. There seems to be pace on the cards which will be important to him, and I'd hope Jason Hart can sit prominent enough close to the pace and do his best work late on in the straight. 5/1 is fair with the favourite coming here off the back of a break, and Earth Drummer unproven on the surface.
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Afternoon bets:
A cracking days' racing today, with a couple of excellent jumps cards from Aintree and Chepstow our main focus. An evening update will follow before 5.30pm.
3.00 Aintree Edgardo Sol 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Edgardo Sol looks ovepriced here for a stable whose horses are in decent form. He seems to have been around for a while now, but is only a seven year old and in my view probably suffered a bit by being down the pecking order at Paul Nicholls' stable. I don't think he was always entered in the right races, and he appeals to me as the type of horse who might benefit for getting a bit more one-on-one attention in a smaller stable.He has won twice over fences at this course, including a very impressive win at the festival in April 2012. Good or good to soft ground seems to bring out the best in him, and he looks nicely handicapped off OR150. He disappointed in this race last year and spent the rest of his campaign hurdling, but he showed enough to suggest the fire still burns and I wouldn't rule out a renaissance under Emma Lavelle's care. The excellent Aidan Coleman rides, and I make Uxizandre (who rates the obvious danger) and this horse the best handicapped pair in the race. 12/1+ looks fair.
3.40 Aintree Burton Port 7pts win @ 10/3 (William Hill, guaranteed, 3/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
This is a cracking Veteran's Chase. I had a good look at it last night when Pigeon Island was 5/1 and better, and I have to say I expected the flood of money that has come given his handicap mark. I made my mind up to take him on with Burton Port provided the selection drifted to 11/4, and I'm very happy to have a decent stake on at 3/1+. I think the selection is the class horse of the race, and his graded form gives him the edge over his rivals off his mark of OR146. The main question to ask here is: have connections sent him here for a quiet spin around as part of an early Grand National campaign? The answer in my view is no. They have booked Jason Maguire, who isn't your typical hide-him-out-the-back type jockey. Rather, I think the owner likes a winner here and given the horse is now eligible for this type of race, why not try and land some prize money without the horse having a hard time? The key piece of form here is not the selections run behind Follow The Plan in the Betfred Bowl of 2012, but his Newbury run in March. Connections allowed him to bowl along and make his own running, using his high cruising speed, class to hold that speed for a long time, and solid jumping to get all his rivals in trouble - including Pigeon Island, who was receiving 13lbs. On heavy ground, Burton Port tired late on and gave best to a dour stayer of Venetia Williams. I think Jason Maguire will be told to make the running today, and I don't think Burton Port will tire on this ground, at a track he enjoys, against inferior rivals. Pigeon Island is undoubtedly well handicapped, but he is 1lb out of the weights and the jockey will either put up overweight, or will be riding at a weight that will leave him feeling pretty weak at the end of three miles and one furlong. He isn't an easy horse to win with, and although I think he will run his race, my reading of the Newbury form leads me to believe Burton Port should account for him. I actually think last year's renewal was poor, and with that in mind I don't fancy Hey Big Spender either. McMurrough and Lie Forrit both seem to want it softer although the latter would be the danger if he enjoys the return to chasing. 3/1+ on Burton Port is far too big here.
4.45 Chepstow Majala 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Tom George's horses have been running well, and I see no reason why Majala should be as big as 10/1 for a race he was second in last year, having set ridiculous fractions. He was thumped by Sire De Grugy that day, but the tactics employed didn't give him much of a chance and it is interesting Alain Cawley rides him today, having won on him at Perth in April, employing more restrained tactics. The selection goes well fresh, and is 6lb lower than he was for the race last year. There is no Sire De Grugy to contend with this time, and I would be happy to take on Valdez at this prices. I priced up Majala as a 6/1 shot tops, and I'm suite surprised he is available at these odds. We'll play each-way and win, which covers our stake and then some in the event of a place
Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: +55.20 / year: +249.75
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