Saturday 8th November 2014

Two races of interest for us today.

3.15 Wincanton

Bertimont 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fox Norton 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Irving could be the class act here, but it has paid in recent weeks to take on Paul Nicholls' horses first time out and perhaps we can get him beaten today. Bertimont hurdled very impressively when winning at Chepstow last time out, and although he was handed a ridiculously easy lead the manner of his victory was impressive. The runner up has run well since, and it might just be that the handicapper has been lenient in his treatment of a progressive horse. The other horse who makes appeal is Fox Norton. His trainer says he's likely to come on for the run, but the same was said of last year's winner Melodic Rendezvous and it didn't stop him winning impressively. Fox Norton is a very classy horse, one of last year's best juveniles and a horse who can go very well fresh. He hasn't been easy to train, but he could be a stone better than his current handicap mark in my estimation and he is a danger to all here. Conditions will suit him and he is too big at double figure prices.

3.25 Kelso Native Spa 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Michael Smith's horses have largely been out of form, but he had a horse run much better the other day at Wetherby and his Native Spa looks well handicapped on a piece of form at Newcastle last season, if he is able to reproduce something in that ballpark on his seasonal reappearance. Smith generally has his horses fit first time up, and he does do well at Kelso: he boasts a 21% strike rate over the course of the last five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +43.13 to the unit stake. Native Spa looked like he still had growing to do last season, and it might just be he improves for the summer on his back. Brian Hughes takes the ride and anything around 9/1+ looks good value. This is a winnable race - most of his rivals haven't achieved much - and anything that shows a modicum of improvement will be in with a chance of winning it.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +207.75