3.20 Lingfield Cascading 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed - Ladbrokes pay 1/4 1-2-3)
Racing prominently has been an advantage in this race over the course of the last two years, since Lingfield's track was relaid. Cascading has never raced on polytrack, which has to be a negative, but I think that is factored into her price and her run style might give her an advantage here. She likes to lead, and with Jim Crowley on board (17% at the track) and a reasonable draw in stall 7, she should be able to get a good early position. As a three year old, she gets a decent weight allowance of her rivals and it is somewhat surprising she is the price she is given her age group's good record in the race. She is the second highest rated 3yo, 1lb behind the 6/4fav Hidden Gold, and 7lbs clear of her next best 3yo rival.
The selection has improved this year, posting a strong effort over 12 furlongs at Newbury in August (a race that has worked out well) before setting too quick a pace at Doncaster last time out on rain softened ground. Her trainer's horses tend to run well on artificial surfaces, including on their first try, and I am happy to give her the benefit of the doubt with the change of surface - indeed I think this sharp, turning track with a downhill section will suit her. One race a month since April probably hasn't been too taxing, and if she can reproduce her Newbury figure, she is in with every chance of winning this. We'll play each-way and win - please note Ladbrokes will pay 1/4 odds 1-2-3.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +24.20 / year: +218.75
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