Thursday, November 13, 2014

Tuesday 4th November 2014

One bet for this afternoon, possible evening bets to follow before 5.00pm.


2.15 Exeter God's Own 5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 8/1

God's Own has been cleverly campaigned by Tom George, in that he retains his Novice status for this season having won the Grade 1 Novice chase at Punchestown on May 1st. He looks well handicapped here with Balder Succes, receiving 7lb from a rival whom he beat off levels on his last start. There seemed to be no fluke about that result, although he got a great ride from Barry Geraghty and raced on the best of the ground all the way around. The extra 1 1/2 furlongs today should be in his favour: he sees out two miles well. The selection also seems better racing clockwise, as I pointed out when advising him in May. He has run well on both his seasonal reappearances (hampered and unseated when going well on last year's seasonal debut) and his trainer is in form. Indeed, his trainer was responsible for the runner up in this race last year Module, who was only beaten a head by Somersby. I'm not a fan of Hinterland with Paul Nicholls' horses tending to need a run, and the selection looks better weighted than Balder Succes. Cue Card will most likely need this after injury, and the danger will perhaps be Somersby. I think connections will have targeted this race for God's Own and he looks too big at 13/2+.


Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +228.75

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