1pt each-way double on today's selections, 10/1 and 7/1 generally guaranteed.
4.55 Kempton Snow Conditions 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
This looks a weak enough contest, but I feel there is some value to be had in backing Snow Conditions. She has only race twice on polytrack, trailing in last here on her debut, but then improving on her seasonal debut over 11 furlongs here to finish second behind Nyanza, who has had an excellent season and is now rated 19lbs higher than she was when beating Snow Conditions having gotten first run on her in a messy race where the leader went tear-assing out in front and was ignored by most of the jockeys until the home turn. She was fully six lengths ahead of Assoluta, today's 9/2 second favourite, that day giving her 6lbs and the selection is 2lbs better off with that rival today. Snow Conditions has picked up a race since, at Brighton, but tends to be a bit in and out. A first time hood didn't have any effect in September (after her win), and heavy ground was no use to her last time out. She travelled very well on this surface on her last attempt on it, and it may just be she ends up a polytrack specialist. Her tendency to race prominently these days is no problem on this tight track, and the draw in stall 4 is kind. If she runs up to her best, I feel she has to go close, and we'll play each-way and win.
5.25 Kempton Understory 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)
It would be unfair to call Understory a One Trick Pony, but that said, he has achieved all of his six wins by making all over trips between 8.5 and 10 furlongs, and five of those wins have been on polytrack. His handicap mark has dropped quite a bit lately, but there were signs of life at Lingfield last time out, when he was able to dominate Sexy Secret and most of the rest of his field before he tired markedly late on to finish fourth. It is interesting he came on a lot for his first run of the winter last year, finding around 8lbs for the benefit of his first run, and if he repeats the pattern this year it puts him right in with a shout here. The draw has been kind to him, and Hayley Turner (who has won on him twice) is making the trip down from Nottingham to ride him (it won't hurt that she rode a winner at Nottingham). He may face competition for the lead, but he looks a faster horse than Pannetone and Classic Mission, and if things go way he could have this lot in trouble by the home turn. At 7/1, he makes plenty of appeal given the fair handicap mark, ideal race conditions, and poor quality of opposition.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +30.20 / year: +224.75
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