3.15 Chepstow
Eastern Witness 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Theregoesthetruth 3pts win @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
This is an interesting low grade handicap hurdle, which will be run on heavy ground. Venetia Williams is the master trainer when it comes to horses running in these conditions, and her Eastern Witness looks to be worth chancing at a double figure price here. The selection is bred to go on this kind of ground, and won an Irish point to point on soft, but he achieved very little in maiden hurdles last year. His trainer done a decent job of getting him handicapped on a workable mark of OR99, and it is interesting she perseveres. The drop back in trip is interesting: he showed promise on his final start at Huntingdon at around this distance, before being put away. Whether there were breathing or other issues, he was never really right and connections done the right thing in putting him away in early March. It may be that he simply doesn't have much ability, but his trainer isn't knowing for keeping bad horses and this looks a good piece of placement. Aidan Coleman takes the right.
Theregoesthetruth represents a stable who are in very good form, with a number of horses outrunning market expectation in the last few days. The selection saw the track as a four year old in Ireland, but was off the track until her reappearance at Ffos Las last month. She ran well and hurdled proficiently, but her jockey noticeably took a pull on her around three out, and she was ridden very tenderly thereafter - in fact, she made her only jumping mistake of the race after being eased to a slower pace. She most likely did get tired late on, and the time of the race wasn't impressive, but it was a nice reintroduction against horses better than what she faces today. She is by Flemensfirth, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground is strong, and she should handle conditions today. A good 3lb claimer takes the ride and she is also worth betting on her handicap debut.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +4.00 / year: +222.75
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