Friday - Ebor Day Four

Another profitable day yesterday with our lay of Sariska. She was never going to get past Dar Re Mi and I don't buy the excuses about her being in season. The day could have been even better had Leocorno held on but Mick Kinane edged out Ryan Moore in a tight finish. Excellent racing at York again today, but a word of warning that it looks like a bookies benefit. We're keeping the stakes moderate for that reason, I expect a few surprises but we're way ahead for the week and in a good position.

The opening handicap looks very interesting and the money is beginning to come for Cosmic Sun. Richard Fahey's team are said to have been a little under the weather this week, but that sort of stuff is more down to rumour than anything else and we have to remember his team have been winning all year so it's open to interpretation how exposed some of them are at this stage of the year. Cosmic Sun has been in excellent form since his 66/1 Ascot win and he is bred to appreciate extreme distances such as that which he faces today. His form looks solid and his staying on effort behind Classic Vintage last time out suggests he can turn the tables on that one over two extra furlongs on revised terms. 13/2 is good value.

The 2.50 looks like a minefield with neither of the market leaders looking convincing. I think there will be a surprise here, and at prices I like the look of Balcarce Nov and Beckermet. The aforementioned travelled really well at Haydock last time out before knucling down to a gritty success. He looked an absolute picture and trip and ground are perfect for him today. 25/1 is far too big. Beckermet has a really good record both at this course and at this level. He tends to peak at this time of year, and I'd be even more confident if Abbodanza was not in the line up, to take him on for the lead. Again, he is massively overpriced at 33/1.

In the Nunthorpe, I like Henry Candy's Amore Propre. He scoped dirty after his recent disappointment but the trainer's horses are in really good form of late and the fast five furlongs will suit him ideally. There is bundles of low pace in this race, and I'm just wondering if there is a slight possibility that York's watering policy may have caused a high draw bias. All the fancied horses are drawn low, and if there is to be a boilover. Captain Gerrard is the once I fancy for the upset. Drawn high, this pacey sort ran really well behind Scenic Blast at Ascot and Borderlescott at Chester latest. I'll have a small bet to cover Bryan Smart's gelding.

Best Recommendations:

1.45 York Cosmic Sun, 3pts win @ 15/2 (Guaranteed)

2.50 York Balcarce Nov 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, guaranteed) 2.50 York Beckermet, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

3.25 York Amour Propre 3pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)

3.25 York Captain Gerrard 1/2 pt each-way @ 40/1 (Sporting Bet, 1/4 odds each-way)

Thursday - Ebor Day Three

A fine day yesterday with five point bet Showcasing winning impressively. Mister Manannan was just touched off and perhaps should have won with a more forceful ride. Excellent stuff on the Knavesmire again today. The 2.50 handicap looks interesting in the sense that I can find reasons to oppose almost everything at the top end of the market. An occasional tactic of mine is to spread a few points across the bottom end of the market, evenly distributed rather than dutched, hoping one of the outsiders pops up at a price, and I think this is a perfect opportunity - plenty of these outsiders have a chance and there is not much in the race that can immediately be written off. I'll be backing ten at the high end of the market to smal stakes, using betfair - the advantage of this is that with betfair the horses at bigger prices are the ones with vastly inflated prices compared to the bookies S.P., so you get fantastic value. Sariska won the Irish Oaks so impressively because she handled the ground best, in my opinion. Midday didn't go a yard on the bog-like Curragh ground, very different to the Goodwood soft for the Nassau Stakes. With the ground riding fast, a small field, and a track which favours front runners, I'm laying Sariska to small stakes. Sir Michael Stoutes team are in fine form and his Leocorno is the one to be on in the 4.05. 3/1 looks a fair price, if she is forgiven her last run (excuses) she is the most progressive horse in the field and we are told she is working very well at home, and has had an uninterrupted preparation.

Best Recommendation:

2.50 York - Spread 3pts evenly around: Fishforcompliments, Patricians Glory, Wise Dennis, Charlie Cool, Extraterrestrial, Huzzah, Docofthebay, Kay Gee Be, Filipando, Alazayab. (ie. if you play £10 per point, back each one for £3)

3.25 York Lay Sariska to risk 3pts @ 1.36 (ie. to win ~ 8pts) Successful Lay

4.05 York Leocorno, 3pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get a guaranteed price) 2nd

Wednesday - Ebor Day Two

A profitable day yesterday with Elusive Pimpernel winning well in the end having been well backed, and Mastercraftsman giving Sea The Stars a real good race in the Juddmonte. He traded at a low of 1.62 in running, our advice was to trade out at 1.72 so we saved our stake. I hope most of you got on Arsenal (-1) last night at 10/3. The mail was late because we wanted to double check the team sheets, and it was only then that we decided 10/3 was a very good bet. Arsenal looked awesome in possession, but may be vulnerable to a physical side as usual.

The Gimcrack Stakes is our first port of call for a bet this afternoon. John Gosden's Showcasing is being privately touted as a classic prospect for next year and we're told he is showing all the right signs at home ahead of his tilt at today's contest. His form behind Arcano is top drawer, and his win second time out confirmed the promise, although he beat very little. I think he is a better horse than Monsieur Chevalier and tentative formlines suggest he already has the beating of Orpen Grey. 9/4 with Stan James looks a good price and he rates the bet of the day.

The O'Brien trained favourite dominates the Ebor betting, but it's Brian Ellison's Ladies Best who represents the best value here. His dam won four times for John Dunlop over two miles and it appears he has inherited her stamina, for he has looked to be crying out for this trip all season. A string of good performances, including a fifth in the John Smiths Cup over 10f here last time, have caught our attention and at 28/1 he looks way overpriced as an each-way selection.

In the Julia Graves Roses Stakes, Dandy Nicholls Mister Manannan appeals as a worthy favourite who might drift in the betting before the off. He Molecombe second looks rock solid in the context of this race and, although the stable have been quiet in the past week, the current 9/4 represents value and should be taken as a guaranteed price. The opposition mostly have questions to answer and if he goes on the ground, he can land the spoils here.

Best Recommendations:

2.50 York Showcasing, 5pts win @ 9/4 (Stan James) Won

3.25 York Ladies Best 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Generally)

4.05 York Mister Manannan 3pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, Get guaranteed price) 2nd

Tueasday August 18th Late News

Celtic take on Arsenal tonight in the Champions League and we think the prices are wrong. Celtic will be a tough nut to crack at home, but Arsenal will be flying after their weekend victory and we expect them to outclass Celtic. If they can get their noses in front, we think it could end up with Arsenal winning by more than a goal. Betfred's standout 10/3 on Arsenal (-1) is too big.

Best Recommendation: Arsenal (-1), 3pts @ 10/3 (Betfred) Won

Tuesday - Ebor Day One

Any Given Moment was a non-runner at Yarmouth last night. The Ebor festival kicks off today and if we do half as well as we did at Goodwood we'll be laughing come the weekend. Day one features some fantastic action. The Acomb stakes for 2yo's is a Group 3 and often throws up a very decent winner. the likes of King's Best and Rule Of Law have won in the last ten years. John Dunlop runs Elusive Pimpernel, an impressive winner on his debut, and he looks the one to be on at around 9/2. I prefer him to the favourite because he beat the favourite first time out, and he put his head down and responded to the whip in the style of his sire, the great Giant's Causeway, when asked to go about his business. Godolphin's 2yo's have been excellent this year but at the top level I find them to be too fizzy, often hanging under the whip, and finding little for pressure after travelling well. Elusive Pimpernel won't shirk the issue and he should be fine on the good to firm ground. Paul Cole's Mata Keranjang may be the danger. The Great Voltigeur is always a cracking contest, and this year's renewal of the Group 2 event is no different. Sir Michael Stoute's Harbinger done us a good turn at Goodwood and we think he can go in again today. He looked the part at Goodwood, seeing out the race well stepped up in class, and 12f on good to firm ground look to be his ideal conditions. He can take Alwaary's measure and 2/1 looks fair - get a guaranteed price as he may well drift. The Juddmonte International is the feature on day one and I must say 3/1 about Mastercraftsman represents good value to me against Sea The Stars. Aidan O'Brien runs two pacemakers in the contest and Johnny Murtagh's mount will have the race run the way O'Brien wants it. It may not be good enough against a superstar horse, but Mastercraftsman is a Classic winner himself, there is nothing wrong with his attitude, and he will fight Mick Kinane's mount all the way to the line. I don't think there will be much in this and for those of you who like to trade in running, perhaps try and save your stake at around 8/11.

Best Recommendations:

2.15 York Elusive Pimpernel, 2pts each-way @ 9/2 (Bet 365, Stan James - 1/4 odds) Won

2.50 York Harbinger, 6pts win @ 2/1 (Boylesports, William Hill - price guaranteed)

3.25 York Mastercraftsman, 4pts win @ 4.2 (Betfair), Lay to save stake in running @ 1.72 Succesful Trade