Tuesday 24th September 2013

Just one for this afternoon.

3.30 Lingfield Canadian Run 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 18/1 William Hill, Independents, guaranteed) - WON

We backed Canadian Run last winter at Kempton when he justified strong support and won cosily, looking very much at home on polytrack in the process. It may be he is simply a polytrack horse, and there has been enough in his other form just lately to suggest he is in good form and has benefited from the application of a hood. His run at Epsom was promising, while a run on soft ground at Newbury is easily excused. The selection is drawn wide in stall 12 but that might not be a negative with the amount of kickback Lingfield is throwing up, and it is worth mentioning the stable's 21% strike rate here over the course of the last five seasons. He looks a little overpriced and is probably the best betting opportunity on an otherwise average looking Tuesday

Profit & loss: day: +57.60 / month: +142.70 / year: +407.09

Monday 23rd September 2013

Just one selection for today.

3.50 Kempton Cordial 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

It's not usually recommended to back a filly who looked disinterested in racing when last seen on the track, but Cordial is given the benefit of the doubt having been found to have been in season by the racecourse vet after her Salisbury run. Her debut at Newmarket was eye catching, she travelled strongly in a good quality maiden before tiring and coming home in her own time. She has yet to get involved in a finish or find much off the bridle in two runs, but the crucial thing here is forgiving the second run and the fact that her excuse last time has not been noticed in the media or factored in to her price. She should probably be a bit shorter, perhaps around the 6/1 mark. William Buick rides, and stall 1 looks a fair enough draw over this seven furlongs (the bend comes up fairly quickly). There is hope on pedigree that she will improve on this surface, her strong travelling style and athletic action will be a help to her. If she is over what ails her, she might have the edge on the slower developing, more stoutly bred sorts, and a chance is taken at 9/1+ that she can improve her owner's already decent strike rate with two year olds at this time of year.

Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +85.10 / year: +349.89

Saturday 21st September 2013

Not a day's racing where I feel particularly strongly about anything at short odds, and I'm happy to take a couple of shots at both the big Ayr handicaps and leave it at that.

2.40 Ayr - Ayr Silver Cup

Polski Max 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Pearl Ice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I've pretty much taken one from the near side and one from elsewhere in both sprints, I do think the near side is the place to be but never be surprised to see a draw bias turned on it's head - it usually happens because one side races too fast or too slow and that is never really taken into account.

Polski Max has some strong early season form on soft ground, and his handicap mark has come back down to OR96 after a summer racing on ground that he doesn't handle. He hinted at a return to form at Ripon last time out and with his jockey's 5lb claim he looks overpriced at 33/1+. He wasn't given a hard time at Ripon when making late headway and you'd have to feel he will be cherry ripe for this.

Pearl Ice will hopefully be ridden with a bit more restraint than usual by Jamie Spencer - there is a lot of pace drawn high and a burn up would be a worry. You can rely on this jockey not to get there too soon, though, and his form with Spinatrix from Ripon looks strong. 18/1 is too big and he gets the shout of those drawn near side.

3.50 Ayr - Ayr Gold Cup

Hasopop 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Spinatrix 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Hasopop has a crazy jockey booking, which must be down to the owner. Paulo Sirigu does have the distinction of being the only jockey to get a win out of Miakora, however, and his quieter style might suit this strong traveller. The selection has some very strong form, he shapes like a galloper, and the progeny of Haatef have been handling this kind of ground well. He stays further than six furlongs and I actually think this text will be ideal - 33/1 is too big.

Spinatrix is thought of by many as a Ripon specialist but she has won here too and is in the form of her life. She may have been in front too soon against Baccarat at Ripon last time and she might have a better draw than that rival today. 25/1 is a bit ridiculous given how closely matched they look and she looks excellent value to me at the prices. Connor Beasley is excellent value for his 5lb.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +86.30 / year: +351.09

Friday 20th September 2013

A great day for us yesterday with 14/1 and 11/2 winners (depending on what prices you got) and I'd like to thank everyone for the kind words as we had quite a few e-mails yesterday after racing. One or two enquired about the betting boards forum, the link is www.thebettingboards.com and the Strikeline 2013 thread can be found in the services discussion section.

A couple of today's prices were under threat so I decided to send all three early enough as I'm fairly sure the ground is soft.

We may have price alerts for tomorrow later on this evening.

2.20 Ayr Imperial Legend 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

I don't think there's too much in the draw but I think it takes a particularly good performance to win from the middle so anything drawn in the bottom or top ten of a big field looks ok to me. Imperial Legend is berthed in 23 and he has looked a sprinter on the improve all season. He travels powerfully and sees out five furlongs really well these days, he appears to be strengthening up with each run - he was doing all his best work at the finish last time out and he looked a long way from the horse who was getting beaten having traded long odds on (finishing weakly) earlier this summer. He also showed a liking for soft ground, and with a good 7lb claimer booked he looks the one to beat here - I don't fancy any of the three year olds on this testing ground.

2.50 Ayr Fast Track 5pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Paddy Power, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)

David Barron's string are in good form and he improved his record with juveniles at the track yesterday with Red Stargazer winning a maiden. Fast Track looks a talented horse who has long been waiting on rain softened ground. He shows plenty of speed for a son of Rail Link, and there is plenty of knee action there too suggesting he will revel in these ground conditions and enjoy this galloping track and stiff finish. I would make him shorter than 9/2 against the two market leaders. I may have very small savers on Oasis Town and Lad Chantilly, two horses I feel might improve for the ground, but I think the selection is a classy sort and he looks the best bet for the win.

4.00 Ayr Ashpan Sam 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ashpan Sam is drawn in stall three and I would hope he can make all on the far rail. He looks very progressive indeed and he shot a decent field to bits on rain softened ground last time out. There is little doubt he is in the form of his life and the only question is where the ceiling of his ability lies. Connections were talking of a tilt at the Ayr Gold and Silver Cup but he only gets into the Bronze and it is easy to see why he is one of the favourites. A big weight should not bother him and I think double figure odds are very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +98.30 / year: +363.09

Thursday 19th September 2013

Three races of interest, all at Ayr on day one of their flagship meeting.

2.10 Ayr

Red Stargazer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Mishnah 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP

The top section of this market is made up of horses with various negatives against their name and this race has tended to throw up big prices in second and third over the years. That's probably down to the fact that top yards send horses for the race but they don't exactly send their stable stars and usually the field contains one or two useful types with the rest pretty much scrapping for place money. Kommander Kirkup and Ribbleton are standouts here, but the former hasn't raced since his debut and isn't sure to act on soft ground in my view, while the second is by a sire, Bushranger, whose progeny haven't had a good record on this ground from a limited sample size thus far. In addition, he was a bit disappointing last time out. A chance is taken, therefore, on the unraced horse Red Stargazer, who should handle conditions based on his breeding and represents a trainer with a 25% strike rate with juveniles at the track in recent years. Robert Winston has been used sparingly by the stable but has a 3/12 25% strike rate for them over the same time period, and it is interesting the selection fits neatly into the criteria for this race as a relatively cheap purchase - this race may have been the intention for a while.

A chance is taken too on Mishnah at astronomical odds. She is by Orpen and should handle the ground, she also has a featherweight to carry as a bargain basement purchase with a 5lb claimer up too. She has it to do against the likes of the favourite but she ran a really nice race on debut and looked really green, she should learn from that and her dam was an OR80+ 2yo winner. The trainer makes what will probably end up a ten hour plus round trip and it is interesting he goes to the trouble. She should be a triple figure price on the win market.

2.40 Ayr Partner 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Parnter looks a bit of a plot here. He has lost his way and come right down in the ratings since finishing faster than some much higher rated horses in the Ayr Gold Cup last season when he was sent off a 66/1 shot and excelled himself in seventh. The stable haven't had a good year but they did have a winner at Musselburgh the other day, where Partner ran better than his finishing position suggests. He wasn't suited by a sharp right handed track and the return to a straight five furlongs on soft ground is in his favour today. Blinkers are returned, all six career wins have been achieved in them. Off a mark of OR60 he is worth chancing at 20/1+.

5.10 Ayr Calculated Risk 6pts win @ 11/2 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) - WON

Calculated Risk is a smashing looker who has already won on heavy ground over hurdles, and seems to excel on a galloping track on rain softened ground. He is unexposed on the flat and was not suited by the way the race panned out at Hamilton last time, when he was sent off 5/4fav for a yard who should be feared when the money is down. Connections waste no time stepping him up in trip here and I feel it should bring about further improvement. He is a fine big horse, much like Bold Duke who won for is the other day, and will have no trouble carrying 9-9 on his back. As a son of Motivator I think the step up in trip should bring further improvement with it, and he is worth backing with a decent stake at odds I think are too big - I make him around 4/1 on my tissue.

Profit & loss: day: +60.80 / month: +111.30 / year: +376.09

Wednesday 18th September 2013

Just one for this afternoon. We may have evening bets for Kempton, which will be released before 5.30pm.

4.55 Yarmouth Prohibit 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Some of you who have been with us a while will no doubt remember us backing Prohibit at 14/1 to win the King's Stand in 2011, and while the old boy is not the same horse as he was, he has slipped to a very dangerous handicap mark of OR97 and has a good claimer taking an additional 3lb off him. The selection bounced back to form on his penultimate run at Nottingham, showing much more than he had in a while, posting a Racing Post Rating of 100 in the process. I don't think Yarmouth will be too soft for him today, although Haydock last time defintitely was and you can forgive him that race no problem. A straight five furlongs is fine and he should get the strong pace he needs here. At 25/1+ and with his Betfair SP perhaps set to be bigger, he represents good value to small win and each-way stakes.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +50.50 / year: +295.29

Tuesday 17th September 2013

Again we've waited to be sure of the ground conditions before betting.

Two for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 2/1, 9/2 (Generally guaranteed)

3.20 Chepstow Glebe Spirit 4pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Chepstow will be soft by the time this race starts and although he is unproven on the ground, I think Glebe Spirit will handle it based on visual evidence and breeding. The selection also looks really well handicapped based on the promise he showed in maidens, and there is a suspicion he is far better than OR69. This looks a neat piece of placement from the Hannon team, I'd make him shorter than 2/1 and he looks worth backing. We'll also put him in an each-way double.

5.50 Chepstow Bold Duke 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 5/1

The ground could be close to heavy by the time this race goes off and you can bet your bottom dollar Bold Duke will handle it better than anything else. He is a strapping son of Sulamani who loves getting his toe in, and a look through his form suggests he is well handicapped too. He has won before for an amateur handler, so Robert Williams' 5lb claim should be worthwhile (jockey has ridden a winner here). He looks to have been rested for a back end campaign given the fast ground during the summer, as a result he is fresh and has a good looking handicap mark. He should take this on his way to more late season victories in my view.

Profit & loss: day: +19.00 / month: +53.50 / year: +298.29

Monday 16th September 2013

I delayed today's mail a little because I thought the price on our selection might drift to 3/1, it has only reached that price in one place but the 11/4 guaranteed is still good value.

5.00 Wolverhampton Genuine Quality 5pts win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)

Wolverhampton has been riding slow just lately and historically that can bring the U.S.A. suffix horses an advantage, rather like they have on Southwell's fibresand. I fins that it becomes more of a speed handicapping test than anything else and with today's five furlong maiden I'm hoping that holds true. Genuine Quality has finished second on all her starts, but six furlongs with Brighton's stiff finish was hardly a good piece of placement for her last start and she had had a nice break before that and might have needed the run. The selection has speed to burn but has struggled to get home in her races. It is noticeable from the Brighton run that she has a choppy kind of action which perhaps isn't suited to turf, and given her breeding I feel she might just improve on this surface. She breaks very well from the stalls and if she takes to this test, she could be a couple of lengths clear in no time if allowed to bowl along. If the surface allows her to keep up her top speed better than turf does, then I think the others might struggle to catch her. I'm prepared to take that chance at 11/4 or better.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +34.50 / year: +279.29

Sunday 15th September 2013

Nice to back the St. Leger winner for the second time in three years, and we've now turned over a nice profit at each of Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, the Ebor festival and the St. Leger Festival. Sunday looks decidedly average in the U.K., but we have one bet at the Curragh.

4.25 Curragh Sudirman 6pts win @ 2/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There is nothing flashy about Sudirman, but he shows great attributes for a two year old in that he puts his head down and battles, and appears to do enough to win his race and not much more. He is currently the highest rates two year old, and he revisits a course he has been successful at on his last two runs today. The step up to seven furlongs should suit him - he does not look an out an out speed merchant - and pedigree and his run style would suggest the additional yardage will be something he will take in his stride. Giovanni Boldoni looks talented but will have to step up a huge amount on his Dundalk debut to win this, while Toormore was visually impressive at Goodwood but he had the advantage of racing at a track where his jockey is absolutely peerless, and he did get quite a way behind at one stage - he can't afford to do that against the tough as nails Sudirman, and the selection is taken to come out on top as a result. I make Sudirman a marginal favourite on my book, so anything 2/1 or better should be taken.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +39.50 / year: +284.29

Saturday 14th September 2013

A nice winner with Camborne yesterday puts us ahead for the meeting, one additional winner or a big priced place today would see us in profit overall.

2:05 At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f

It's a shame only four line up here, which spoils it somewhat as a betting proposition and has been a feature of the week. Cable Bay is a token selection at 9/2 but I personally wouldn't back him unless I could get around 13/2.

2:40 Ladbrokes Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y

Burwaaz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Prodigality 1pt each-way ANd 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A cracking good renewal. I don't see anything representing much in the way of value from the high drawn horses, and I'm not mad keen on basing my selections around draw bias unless I have a big edge in doing so or feel that the bias absolutely, definitely exists. In this case that's a negative, and I've selected two low drawn horses. Burwaaz has a Group 2 second to his name at this track, and I feel the intermediate distance will suit him very well. The application of blinkers seemed to liven him up in the Stewards' Cup where he finished second, and he looks well handicapped off OR96. We need to forgive a disappointing Group 1 run in France last time out.

Prodigality went close in this last year and will enjoy the softer ground. He hasn't had the breaks this season but today's conditions represent his ideal circumstances and he looks overpriced. There are some very good horses drawn around our selections and sometimes I feel that's as important as being drawn around the pace - it is important to get a good tow in and quality horses are more likely to do that for you. If Prodigality gets the right tow in here, he ought to go close again.

3:15 OLBG Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f

Red Jazz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ryan Moore takes the ride on Red Jazz here and I'm willing to take a chance on him reproducing his back class because I'm not convinced by the market principals. The selection has run a couple of very good races in Autumn in recent years and he seems to have been kept back with a similar campaign in mind. He hasn't produced his best in a long time but he is a seven furlong specialist, and should act on the ground. He has run well in Newmarket'sChallenge Stakes for the last two seasons and although he has never run at Doncaster, I am inclined to take the chance that the galloping track will suit him and the price compensates us for the speculative nature of the bet.

3:50 Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y

Leading Light 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Great Hall was my initial ante post choice here but I never sent the bet out because I think he is a better horse on good or faster ground and I can't see him winning this on the likely ground. The progeny of Montjeu have a 2-2-13 record in this contest and Leading Light makes plenty of appeal as a horse who is in the winning habit and looks extremely tough in a battle. He is an uncomplicated ride and may even get an easy lead with little notable pace in the race. He is an out and out galloper, so Joseph O'Brien will need to set the right fractions, but he can be expected to find more when challenged. Some of the market principals seem to have interlinked form and have been beating each other, which is not a positive sign in my view. Leading Light had a small setback before the Great Voltigeur which tempers enthusiasm a little, but connections seem confident he is over that and I expect him to take the beating.

4:25 Napoleons Casinos And Restaurants Handicap Cl2 1m4f

No bet for us here, but Mister Impatience is my idea of the winner at 9/2.

5:00 Agriargo UK Tractor Challenge Nursery Handicap Cl2 1m

Sir Jack Layden should go on the ground and is worth a small investment at 4/1+.

6:05 Harriet De-Vere Powell Handicap Cl2 1m

Levitate is proven at this track and I expect him to outrun odds of 9/1+.

Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: +45.50 / year: +290.29

Friday 13th September 2013

A more interesting today, although it is disappointing to see so many small fields. We may have evening price alerts for tomorrow.

1:40 Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f

No bet in the opener, but Sleeper King is my idea of the winner and can be backed at 9/2.

2:10 Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132

Camborne 4pts win @ 13/2 (Generally, guaranteed) - WON @ 7/1

The progeny of Doyen have a strong record on soft ground and stay really well, and I expect Camborne to prove a tough nut to crack in this stamina test. The selection has been racing in better company than this and as a big, strong gelding, I don't think he will have much trouble carrying this kind of weight. The return to handicap company should therefore be to his advantage, and he has a very impressive seven length handicap win at this track on his CV. He didn't appear to handle Goodwood on his last two runs, and although it is a worry that he slowed right up at the finish last time, John Gosden wouldn't send him here if he hadn't come out of that race 100%. It might be he is a completely different horse on this galloping track and his class might be the winning of this.

2:40 Speedy Services Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f

Biographer 4pts win @ 7/2 / 10/3 (Generally, guaranteed)

I don't think High Jinx or Times Up are superstar stayers, and there is not much between them on last year's running. A chance is taken on Biographer, who handles this ground and has some really strong form as a three year old in the book. Things haven't really dropped right for him this season, but he won his maiden here and looks certain to be suited by the ground. He appeals as the up and comer against two more exposed rivals and, with David Lanigan's stable in very good form, he looks the bet at the prices.

3:15 Barrett Steel May Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 1m

Qawaasem 4pts win @ 9/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

Barry Hills always likes a winner here and his son Charlie has already struck this week with Sir Pedro on day one of the meeting. Qawaasem looks a pleasing price to add to that tally. she is another who didn't appear to be at home on Goodwood's unique undulations last time out, and I would suggest we'll see a much better horse at today's track upped to one mile. She was the only one to give Amazing Maria anything like a race at Goodwood and it is worth remembering that rival had already shown a liking for the track. I'm not overly keen on the Godolphin pair here and I think Qawaasem might be backed, so take the early price.

3:50 One Call Insurance Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f

Barley Mow should win this, obviously no bet at the prices with no apparent edge to be had.

4:25 Towndoor Limited Commercial Property Rental Handicap Cl2 6f110y

Norse Blues 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Norse Blues has a Spring Mile in the formbook and it is interesting that when he won that day, he was in front fully two furlongs from home, suggesting the performance can be marked up given how hard it is statistically to win from the front at this track. It also showed he has gears, and it is interesting he steps back to sprinting for shrewd connections here. Could it be they have a tilt at the Ayr Gold Cup in mind? Nothing stands out for me in this field, but if the pace is good as seems likely (the selection is drawn next to Dr. Red eye, who front runs) I expect Norse Blues to be staying on when others have cried enough. It is a chancey bet, but the selection posted a lifetime best on his penultimate start and can probably be forgiven a poor run at York last time down to ground faster than he seems to enjoy. 16/1 is too big.

5:00 Frank Whittle Partnership Classified Stakes Cl3 1m2f60y

No bet here, but your bookmaker might be annoyed if you back Amralah each-way against the favourite at around 7/2!

Profit & loss: day: +17.00 / month: +29.50 / year: +274.29

Thursday 12th September 2013

Donny Rover was well backed and ran far better than his morning odds suggested he would yesterday. Bedloe's Island kicked up a fuss at the start and was a non runner.

1:40 European Breeders´ Fund Carrie Red Fillies´ Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f110y

Nakuti 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

By a sire whose progeny are giving some early indication that they handle soft ground, and on the Dam's side is related to Arch Rebel, a noted soft ground performer. This is a race that seems to be lacking an outstanding candidate, and it seems ripe for something to come from left field and land the spoils. The selection travelled much better than a horse of OR74 last time out, and was nabbed late on having been collared close home after a prolonged duel with the eventual third. The eventual winner seemed to act on the fast ground better than Nakuti, and there is hope for further improvement for today's conditions. She was in front far too soon last time out to be fair, and the booking of Jamie Spencer in place of Liam Keniry seems to be a statement of intent. 16/1 is too big.

2:10 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f

Quite a good renewal although two non runners have lowered the field size. It is hard to know what will improve for the galloping track and prevailing ground conditions, but Winning Express is a strong candidate to do just that and might be worth backing at 7/2.

2:40 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y

Azagal 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 / 10/1 (Generally guaranteed for 4 places including Bet 365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 2nd @ 12/1

Azamour's progeny haven't been talked about much but he is becoming a fine sire and many of his horses act well on soft ground. Azagal's pedigree and knee action would suggest she should improve again for today's conditions, and she looks a horse who will gallop on strongly through this extended distance when others have cried enough. Her run at York last time was on fast ground which she may not have enjoyed, and she was probably racing on the least favourable side of the track too. Despite that, she produced a lifetime best performance in Group 2 company and she should thrive for the step down in class here. Double figure prices, with four places to be paid with many bookmakers, are too big and she should be backed each-way to save the stake with a larger portion on the bet.

3:15 DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y

This will take some getting, and at the prices I'm happy to sit it out. The Lark would be a token choice for those wanting to get involved.

3:50 crownhotel-bawtry. com EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 1m

A no bet race with little form to go on. Fast Delivery ticks a lot of boxes on pedigree and probably deserves to be favourite.

4:25 Download The Ladbrokes Bingo App Handicap Cl3 6f

If So 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

James Fanshawe's horses have been in fine form and I see very little for If So to be afraid of here if she brings her A game to the table. She has progressed rapidly this season and like her half brother Deacon Blues, I fancy her to progress beyond this class. She seems to be getting better with time and she is a strapping big filly who will eat up the ground at this galloping track. 7/1 is too big and she looks an obvious selection against the favourite to me.

5:00 DFS Handicap Cl2 1m2f60y

No bet but Clon Brulee was close to being a selection, I fancy him to gallop these into the ground and he is a good price at 7/1.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +12.50 / year: +257.29

Wednesday 11th September 2013

A little bit of a damp squib for day one with only two selections, but the ground looks set to change during the afternoon with rain almost certain to hit Doncaster. Thus I'm erring on the side of caution today to get a handle on how the track is riding for the rest of the week - there's no point in throwing out hard earned profits on selections that may not have ideal conditions. Both today's selections are a little speculative but should enjoy the ground and definitely have any negatives factored into their respective prices.

2:00 Arena Group Nursery Handicap Cl2 7f

Donny Rover 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed)

Donny Rover was sent off just 13/2 for the soft ground Brocklesby, but no showed and has struggled for most of the season on quick ground. He is by Excellent Art, whose progeny have a marked preference for soft and heavy ground. It may not be that testing by the time this race gets underway, but there will certainly be some give in it and it is worth noting the track has been verti drained since the last meeting, which often results in the track riding slower than the advertised ground would suggest it should. The selection has hinted at finding his form on his last two starts, and it appears connections have saved him for a late season campaign. The stable, who haven't had a vintage 2013 by any means, seem to have hit form just lately and their last two representatives have won. David Probert is a good booking and can do the weight no problem.

2:30 Irish Stallion Farms E B F Conditions Stakes Cl2 6f

Justice Day was originally intended as a selection here but I fear the ground may have gone on him. As such, it's a no bet race for us.

3:00 Crown Hotel Bawtry Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f

Magical Macey handles rain softened ground well but I just don't think she's strong enough to recommend as a bet. 11/1 represents fair each-way value for those looking to get involved.

3:35 Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes Cl5 1m

A no bet race for me if there ever was one. Callmeakhab would be a token each-way interest.

4:10 Park Hill Hospital Conditions Stakes Cl2 1m2f60y

Again no betting interest here, but I've discussed the strengths of Whipper's progeny on soft ground numerous time and the outsider of the bunchWhipper's Boy could outrun his odds if the ground cuts up here.

4:45 Beauty At Doncaster Handicap Cl2 7f

Regal Dan would have been a bet at around 15/2 on better ground, but I can't recommend him under these conditions and I'll let him win at odds of around 11/2.

5:15 Berendsen Workwear Handicap Cl4 5f

Bedloe's Island 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R

There are a couple of caveats here in that Bedloe's Island has been off for 52 days, generally something I don't like with a sprinter. In addition, some of David O'Meara's aren't running to form, but the victory of Thornaby Nash yesterday would suggest that perhaps his soft ground horses are coming to hand and gearing up for late season campaigns. Bedloe's Island is relatively lightly raced for an eight year old, but he has run some really good races since switching to O'Meara at the start of the season and still looks fairly handicapped off OR84. In addition, he is proven on soft and heavy ground, including one good run on his seasonal reappearance here in 2012. He hit the front too soon that day and battled on well for third. In retrospect, that looks a much better race than this and if the ground slows up, conditions should suit the selection better than most. His draw might also be a positive, although it is hard to know at the start of the meeting if there will be any particular bias. I thought the selection was far too big at 20/1+, I make him an 11/1 shot if the rain gets into the ground, and he'll be our best bet for day one.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +20.50 / year: +265.29

Monday 9th September 2013

Wooly Bully won well yesterday and the 9/2 SP was a bonus, personally I made him a 10/3 shot in that field. The rain came just in time and he is a nice staying hurdler in the making.

One for today on an uninspiring day's racing.

3.40 Huntingdon Kitchapoly 4pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Again we're punting in a juvenile hurdle, something we'll be doing more of in the coming National Hunt season. Kitchapoly is a french bred who has already won twice in his native land and recently transferred to Donald McCain. He may just have went off too quickly at Cartmel on his British debut, he was keen enough and he was eventually outstayed by Hi Candy, who was getting 19lb off Kitchapoly. The time was slow and the stamina test may not have suited the selection who had been off the guts of three months. I expect him to be straighter this afternoon, he steps back a furlong in trip on potentially quicker ground and his slick jumping is a big asset to him. His main market rival has disappointed on all his runs going right handed, and the well backed Getaway Car has yet to jump a hurdle in public and shapes like a stayer. The 7lb claimer riding Kitchapoly looks tidy, he should know more about him today and although 7/4 is around the lower limit of price I like to bet at, the selection looks good value at the odds for a moderate win bet.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +23.50 / year: +268.29

Sunday 8th September 2013

One bet for Sunday.

2.10 Fontwell Wooly Bully 3pts each-way @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 9/2

Not a bet that will endear you to your bookmaker but sometimes that's the way to play them. The market is very interesting here, with the French bred Alanjou well backed early into a general 15/8, which looks very short even considering the record of French bred horses in juvenile hurdles in the UK. Baltic Blade and Wooly Bully posted fairly even ratings on their initial starts, but the former now concedes 7lb to our selection having won his first start. Alan King's charge looks a great each-way bet against the top two here. He is by Sixties Icon out of a Karinga Bay mare, which suggests very much that stamina will ultimately prove his forte. It should be noted that he did well, then, to run as promisingly as he did at Stratford on it's sharp track over two miles and 110yds. The selection tackles a much more testing, galloping track at Fontwell this afternoon and recent rain should leave the ground a bit slower too. He also steps up two furlongs in trip, which will be quite a test for these young horses, and seems to be a factor that has been underestimated in the morning markets. He makes plenty of appeal at the prices given his trainer's 27% strike rate at this course with hurdlers over the past five years.

Profit & loss: day: +13.50 / month: +27.50 / year: +272.29

Saturday 7th September 2013

Three races of interest for Saturday.

2.05 Haydock Normal Equilibrium 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, William Hill, independents, get guaranteed)

Gets a rail draw which should be an advantage, and should handle the ground having showed a liking for it when winning at Chester in May. He was never really well placed at York last time out from stall two, but battled on well enough for third. I would hope he gets a tow into this from Judge 'N' Jury, and if Neil Callan can deliver him late after settling him, I think he has the beating of these rivals.

2.55 Kempton Storm King 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Pricewise has knocked a couple of points off his price but there is a chance this will drift on course and to be honest I'd made the selection a 17/2 shot on my tissue so anything in double figures is value in my mind. The selection has showed some improved form on turf this summer but he travels like a dream on this surface and I would argue that a mile at this track is his optimum course and distance. He is drawn quite well in stall seven to take a prominent sit, and I don't see anything to be frightened of amongst the shorter priced horses.

5.10 Ascot

Stone Of Folca 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Port Alfred 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Stone Of Folca drops in class here and I really like the booking of thinking man's jockey Steve Drowne, who has ridden many winners for John Best in the past. This is a horse who will pop up when least expected and I find it interesting Best has sent him here. It looks a decent piece of placement at a track he has performed well at in the past. He would not want much rain but he is drawn well in my view and I have a sneaking feeling they might try holding him up or settling him in midfield rather than tear assing off in front as he has done for most of the last two years.

Port Alfred looks certain to appreciate a bigger field and probably this sand-based track too looking at his action. He has an awful lot of speed and will need a strong pace and holding up to produce his best here. Saying that, I would think there is potential to be unlocked and he might just be a class above these. A win interest at 8/1 is added.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +14.00 / year: +258.79

Friday 6th September 2013

Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets before 5.00pm.

2.00 Haydock Rusty Rocket 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I'm taking an educated guess that a high draw might be an advantage in big fields at Haydock this afternoon. The rain has arrived and we saw this time last year that the stands rail was the place to be in such circumstances. Rusty Rocket has had some bad luck lately, including a horrible incident when he went down in the stalls at Glorious Goodwood, but he has looked progressive this season on soft ground and is worth backing under ideal conditions at a track he has won twice at before. He is only a four year old and should be able to defy his mark of OR84 - he still retains an entry for the Ayr Gold Cup which is a measure of how highly connections rate him.

3.40 Newcastle Mr Vendman 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

The favourite looks a shoe in on ratings here but she may not handle the ground as well as Mr. Vendman, and the selection might be a stronger stayer. This is likely to be a real test if the rain comes and the selection is by Whipper, whose progeny are very profitable to back on soft ground and do improve with time and distance. It looks like a case of quantity more than quality with the rest of the field, and the booking of a good lightweight jockey is eye catching, for all that the selection is clearly limited with an official rating of OR45. He has been getting it together just lately, however, and is worth an each-way and win interest at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +28.00 / year: +272.79

Thursday 5th September 2013

Aegaeus won handsomely last night, thanks in no small part to a clever Ryan Moore ride, and we continue in excellent form - the 10/1 SP was a bonus.

Just one bet for today - some good racing but not many opportunities.

4.05 Haydock Set The Trend 2pts win @ Betfair SP, 3pts place @ Betfair SP

Some of these have to be questioned with regard to their ability over track, trip and ground, and although Set The Trend definitely has it to do at the weights today (gives 13lb away to all his rivals in penalties) he seems to thrive under these conditions and it may be worth throwing away the weights and measures book and supporting him to register a third course success under Kieren Fallon. The selection seems to save his best for Haydock, and his game defeat of Magic Destiny three starts back, giving that consistent mare 13lb as it happens, marked him down as a tough horse to pass at this track. He has run sub par on two occasions since, but big field handicaps don't seem to be his thing and soft ground might have been an issue at York last time out. I think there is a potential market drift here - he really does seem to have a job on at the weights - so we might get a more than generous price about a course and distance expert. There is currently some 3/1 available on the place market - that too has the potential to drift at SP and there is definitely value to be had there. We'll weight the stake, unusually for us, towards the place part of the bet and stake at Betfair SP.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +33.00 / year: +277.79

Wednesday 4th September 2013

One additional selection for Wednesday evening.

8.30 Kempton Aegaeus 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 10/1 SP

Not the most fantastic race for the grade with question marks about a few of the principals. A chance is taken on Aegaeus, who is partnered by Ryan Moore. The selection has disappointed on turf all summer and does look a bit of a monkey, but he travels extremely well on polytrack and has three excellent runs to his name from three attempts on the surface. Some of the form looks strong (his victory over Harry Buckle in particular) and, although the selection's stamina has to be taken on trust, his sire is an outstanding source of middle distance winners and his dam is the top class Oaks winner Ouija Board, so you'd expect that he would stay a mile and a half. He is only a four year old, and is a bit of a giant, so I would suggest there is still some growing to be done and he may only be about to come into his own. He has a fine big stride which should take him into this contest fairly easily and top weight certainly won't bother him. Whether there is too much temperament there for him to go and win his race I don't know, but there is no reason not to expect a very good run on this surface and he looks a very fair price at anything 7/1+ on an each-way and win basis.

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Afternoon Bet:

A decent card at Lingfield this afternoon; we have one selection and possible evening bets to follow, released before 5.00pm.

2.20 Lingfield Illegal Action 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Racebets.com, guaranteed, 22/1 generally guaranteed)

Ollie Stevens has become quite a good trainer of two year olds and this looks a classic case of a horse being priced up on it's finishing position and racing post rating rather than the visual impression of what it achieved during the race. The selection appears to have inherited plenty of speed from his dam's side, and he broke well and travelled comfortably on his Salisbury debut in a fair maiden. He was green, didn't seem to handle the downhill part of the track, jumped the path, and I have a feeling looking closely that the tongue tie employed may not have been fitted correctly (not entirely sure on this, but he didn't look comfortable around his mouth upon close inspection). Despite a poor draw in stall two I think he is overpriced here at 20/1+ and I'd make him more of a 14/1 chance. The trainer's juveniles are almost all coming on nicely for their first run and with some question marks over the principals and unraced horses in opposition, he looks a value pick.

Profit & loss: day: +41.00 / month: +38.00 / year: +282.79

Tuesday 3rd September 2013

Just one for today on a very average day's racing.

4.15 Leicester Abisko 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A poor enough nursery with more quantity than quality on show and there is a chance a few of these may not pick up a race. Abisko hasn't been straightforward but she was thought good enough to run in Listed company second time out and she has shown plenty of speed on more than one occasion suggesting there is a little race in her when she manages to put it all together. We supported her at a big price last time out but she looked to resent the application of blinkers and she didn't quite know where she was, not seeming to handle Beverley's unique track. The headgear is removed this afternoon and a straight five furlongs with a stiff finish, along with a draw from which she can get plenty of cover in the middle of the pack, should present an easier task. This also represents a drop in grade, and a mark of OR60 for her first run in handicap company looks fair enough. The question mark is whether or not she is straightforward, but like I said if she does manage to get her act together and put the natural speed alongside some racing nous, she should be better than her mark and better than this motley crew.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: -3.00 / year: +237.79

Friday 30th August 2013

Tornado Force looks like it will be backed, so I'm sending today's e-mail early since there's an each-way double involved. 

August has been very kind to us, whatever happens today we'll finish the month well over 100pts up and it goes down as one of our best ever returns. I'm going to take Saturday and Sunday off, because Saturday doesn't look that hot, nor does Sunday. It's a good time to get a breather in, and for clients to assess their year so far too. We have Doncaster's Leger meeting coming up and of course Ayr's big meeting. The next e-mail will be Monday morning - although looking at the cards right now they look uninspiring and we mightn't actually bet.

Two for this evening, at Southwell.

1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 5/1 and 4/1 generally guaranteed.

6.30 Southwell Putin 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

For a horse of limited ability, Putin is admirable because he has managed to win six times in a busy career - he has raced 86 times and is only a five year old. He is better on the all weather but has improved on turf this season and seems to have thrived for a drop back to sprinting. It is amazing to think he has won over a mile and also over twelve furlongs here, but his early toe always meant he could have rivals in trouble that may not handle the surface too well - I think that illustrates the unusual nature of the fibresand surface. Whatever, the selection has learned how to put it all together over five and six furlongs and he might be well handicapped on this surface having improved on what seems to be his least favoured surface of turf. John Coffey is unproven on this surface, and although I had considered Solarmaite too she looks short enough for a horse who hasn't really done it here - in addition, she didn't bend well at Wolverhampton. Putin is the sort of horse who could be five lengths clear by the time the others know what hit them here, and at the prices he looks worth backing to win and in an each-way double.

7.30 Southwell Tornado Force 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Was extremely impressive in beating a very good fibresand yardstick in Jack Dawkins on his fibresand debut earlier this year. He travelled like a dream on the surface and it was no surprise given his sire's excellent record with his progeny at Southwell. He has since gone to Alan McCabe, one of the best Southwell trainers, but seems to have lost his way over the summer. McCabe's horses weren't in great form, though, and it is interesting his string are starting to fire again - old Elusive Warrior won here the other night and Flying Pickets didn't run badly from a poor draw. The selection has had a nice break and given that he has gone well fresh in the past, this might be the time to catch him. He travels strongly, so the placement here back a furlong in trip from his course win to this intermediate distance smacks of McCabe probably looking at this race in the program book a few weeks back (ie. this has been the plan for a few weeks) - as does the booking of the season's hottest claimer Connor Beasley, whose 5lb claim is a steal. Tornado Force looks the bet of the day off a mark of OR65 and we'll include him in an each-way double with Putin too.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +107.60 / year: +240.79

Thursday 29th August 2013

Another good day yesterday with First In Command obliging at 14/1. She Can Jig got a strange ride and might be one for another day.

Just one for Thursday.

5.10 Lingfield Proper Charlie 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 13/2 (Bet 365,Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

Proper Charlie has plenty of speed in his pedigree on the dam's side and he is of interest today with a good draw in stall 10 given the Lingfield high draw bias. The selection has his third start for Lee Carter today and gets a visor reapplied to sharpen him up. He showed enough toe to acquit himself well over six furlongs, the only distance he has won over, on his penultimate run which was after a break, and he travelled very well over a mile last time before fading from a draw that put him at a disadvantage (also on this track). He is worth a punt dropped to the minimum trip and ought to be fit enough to run his race. He is 0-15 on turf but his new trainer is building a reputation for success with switchers and from a handicap mark of OR45 the selection is treated well enough to pick up a race like this. A lot will depend on the start: expect him to trade very short and probably win if he bags the stands rail.

Profit & loss: day: -1.40 / month: +117.60 / year: +250.79