Wednesday 7th November 2012

Two selections for this evening.

1pt each-way double on today's selections.

5.55 Kempton Knight Owl 3pts  win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed, 14/1 Sporting Bet)

Represents James Fanshawe, who is not renowned for training two year olds. Indeed, I have to say I found it really unusual that this horse was being kept on the go and one can only presume they think it has the ability to win as a two year old, on this surface. You don't see many of Fanshawe's juvenile on the all weather coming into winter. Knoght Owl was sent off only 9/1 for his debut at Newmarket, but he had a bad draw and the ground was bottomless. He travelled really well for four furlongs, before fading fast and finishing in last place. There is little doubt he has plenty of speed, and I feel it is worth taking a small risk that he improves for this surface and for the intitial experience - Newmarket is a particularly tough track to win at first time out. This does not look a strong maiden, and although Swift Bounty looks relatively solid, I think Knight Owl could be very decent - whether he is ready to show it tonight or not is the risk we take. We'll also put him in an each-way double with our second selection.

6.25 Kempton Tokyo Brown 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

All Weather fans will know how well Neil Callan rides this two mile track, in particular his efforts on Coda Agency from the front stick out. He took Tokyo Brown to the front on his penultimate run here, and although the other jockeys cottoned on and didn't give him an easy lead, the selection did pull clear with two others to finish second. That was a 3yo only handicap and it might just have been a better race than todays. There are question marks about the other three year olds in the line up here, and I am happy to forgive Tokyo Brown an average run at Wolverhampton six days ago - he has run badly there before and it may be this track suits him better. 12/1 looks a decent price and I think it is big - 8/1 would be my tissue price for this horse - and if a first time visor has a galvanising effect, the selection can take a hand in the finish.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +8.90 / year: -11.00