2:05 At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f
It's a shame only four line up here, which spoils it somewhat as a betting proposition and has been a feature of the week. Cable Bay is a token selection at 9/2 but I personally wouldn't back him unless I could get around 13/2.
2:40 Ladbrokes Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y
Burwaaz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Prodigality 1pt each-way ANd 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A cracking good renewal. I don't see anything representing much in the way of value from the high drawn horses, and I'm not mad keen on basing my selections around draw bias unless I have a big edge in doing so or feel that the bias absolutely, definitely exists. In this case that's a negative, and I've selected two low drawn horses. Burwaaz has a Group 2 second to his name at this track, and I feel the intermediate distance will suit him very well. The application of blinkers seemed to liven him up in the Stewards' Cup where he finished second, and he looks well handicapped off OR96. We need to forgive a disappointing Group 1 run in France last time out.
Prodigality went close in this last year and will enjoy the softer ground. He hasn't had the breaks this season but today's conditions represent his ideal circumstances and he looks overpriced. There are some very good horses drawn around our selections and sometimes I feel that's as important as being drawn around the pace - it is important to get a good tow in and quality horses are more likely to do that for you. If Prodigality gets the right tow in here, he ought to go close again.
3:15 OLBG Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f
Red Jazz 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Ryan Moore takes the ride on Red Jazz here and I'm willing to take a chance on him reproducing his back class because I'm not convinced by the market principals. The selection has run a couple of very good races in Autumn in recent years and he seems to have been kept back with a similar campaign in mind. He hasn't produced his best in a long time but he is a seven furlong specialist, and should act on the ground. He has run well in Newmarket'sChallenge Stakes for the last two seasons and although he has never run at Doncaster, I am inclined to take the chance that the galloping track will suit him and the price compensates us for the speculative nature of the bet.
3:50 Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y
Leading Light 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Great Hall was my initial ante post choice here but I never sent the bet out because I think he is a better horse on good or faster ground and I can't see him winning this on the likely ground. The progeny of Montjeu have a 2-2-13 record in this contest and Leading Light makes plenty of appeal as a horse who is in the winning habit and looks extremely tough in a battle. He is an uncomplicated ride and may even get an easy lead with little notable pace in the race. He is an out and out galloper, so Joseph O'Brien will need to set the right fractions, but he can be expected to find more when challenged. Some of the market principals seem to have interlinked form and have been beating each other, which is not a positive sign in my view. Leading Light had a small setback before the Great Voltigeur which tempers enthusiasm a little, but connections seem confident he is over that and I expect him to take the beating.
4:25 Napoleons Casinos And Restaurants Handicap Cl2 1m4f
No bet for us here, but Mister Impatience is my idea of the winner at 9/2.
5:00 Agriargo UK Tractor Challenge Nursery Handicap Cl2 1m
Sir Jack Layden should go on the ground and is worth a small investment at 4/1+.
6:05 Harriet De-Vere Powell Handicap Cl2 1m
Levitate is proven at this track and I expect him to outrun odds of 9/1+.
Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: +45.50 / year: +290.29
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