8.30 Kempton Aegaeus 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 10/1 SP
Not the most fantastic race for the grade with question marks about a few of the principals. A chance is taken on Aegaeus, who is partnered by Ryan Moore. The selection has disappointed on turf all summer and does look a bit of a monkey, but he travels extremely well on polytrack and has three excellent runs to his name from three attempts on the surface. Some of the form looks strong (his victory over Harry Buckle in particular) and, although the selection's stamina has to be taken on trust, his sire is an outstanding source of middle distance winners and his dam is the top class Oaks winner Ouija Board, so you'd expect that he would stay a mile and a half. He is only a four year old, and is a bit of a giant, so I would suggest there is still some growing to be done and he may only be about to come into his own. He has a fine big stride which should take him into this contest fairly easily and top weight certainly won't bother him. Whether there is too much temperament there for him to go and win his race I don't know, but there is no reason not to expect a very good run on this surface and he looks a very fair price at anything 7/1+ on an each-way and win basis.
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Afternoon Bet:
A decent card at Lingfield this afternoon; we have one selection and possible evening bets to follow, released before 5.00pm.
2.20 Lingfield Illegal Action 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Racebets.com, guaranteed, 22/1 generally guaranteed)
Ollie Stevens has become quite a good trainer of two year olds and this looks a classic case of a horse being priced up on it's finishing position and racing post rating rather than the visual impression of what it achieved during the race. The selection appears to have inherited plenty of speed from his dam's side, and he broke well and travelled comfortably on his Salisbury debut in a fair maiden. He was green, didn't seem to handle the downhill part of the track, jumped the path, and I have a feeling looking closely that the tongue tie employed may not have been fitted correctly (not entirely sure on this, but he didn't look comfortable around his mouth upon close inspection). Despite a poor draw in stall two I think he is overpriced here at 20/1+ and I'd make him more of a 14/1 chance. The trainer's juveniles are almost all coming on nicely for their first run and with some question marks over the principals and unraced horses in opposition, he looks a value pick.
Profit & loss: day: +41.00 / month: +38.00 / year: +282.79
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