3.40 Southwell Warfare 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Mondlight looks short enough in a handicap here for a horse who only made his debut as a four year old and might not take his racing as easily as visual evidence would lead us to believe. Tatting and Greyfriarschorista look handicapped up to their best, and Karaka Jack hasn't raced on this surface in over four years. As a result I'm inclined to take a chance on something at a price here, and Warfare fits that bill.
The selection is a five year old who had his first start on this surface in January, with a second start around a week later, and he impressed with how he travelled on the fibresand surface on both of those starts. They were decent contests, but what struck me was how weakly the horse finished having travelled so strongly into contention on that second run. This might be a pattern that repeats itself, but I am inclined to give the horse the benefit of the doubt because it was only his second start since May 2013 (may well have bounced too). The figures he posted make him look well handicapped having been dropped 2lb, and if his finishing effort is stronger he can get involved in the finish here. Whether he has some breathing issues, or isn't the most resolute, is hard to tell, but a forty day break will have done him no harm and Kevin Ryans horses are going better now than at any other point during the all weather season. All in all I think 16/1 represents really good each-way value for an owner who has a history of winners at this track.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -16.00 / year: -1.80
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