I'm going to take a good look at the Galway Plate this afternoon, and if I think there's anything worth backing will release a selection before5.00pm.
2.30 Goodwood Scotland 6pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, guaranteed)
Scotland impressed me physically last time out. He looks a horse who has grown, and I thought he'd be a much shorter price and perhaps tipped up by Pricewise after the Balding stable had a winner here yesterday. I think 8/1 is really good value given the form of that contest. Eagle Top won easily but perhaps had the run of the race and went on to finish fourth in the King George. The runner up, Adelaide, has since finished second in a U.S. Grade 1 at Belmont. I think Scotland might improve for the Ascot race even though it was his third run of the season and his proven ability to handle Epsom bodes well for his chances at Goodwood today. Somewhat should turn this into a test, and the overnight watering will be in the selections favour. At the prices he rates the best bet of the day.
3.05 Goodwood Toronado 5pts win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)
Too much has been made of the ground here and I think Toronado is too big in relation to Kingman. He comes here arguably the fresher horse, is proven at the track, won the race last year, and has the best course jockey on his back. The race might get tactical but I'm happy to have Richard Hughes on my side in that case and I just think he should be more like 15/8 as he was in the ante post markets. This bet is purely based on price, there's no rocket science about it, I believe the pair should be much closer in the market and Toronado gets the call.
3.40 Goodwood Tupi 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) E/W 2nd
This looks a slightly sub standard Lennox Stakes to me, outside of the favourite Highland Reel. I can see negatives for many of these - Pallister may not handle the track or ground, Ahlan Emarati got a bit of a battering from Pat Smullen last time out and might not improve for it,the three outsiders look well held on form. Both the Hannon pair make some appeal, but Tupi gets the call after an impressive debut. That he managed to win handy despite his obvious greenness says a lot for his raw ability, and it has to be significant that Richard Hughes chooses him over Dr. No. 7/1 looks fair on an each-way and win basis.
5.25 Goodwood Bluegrass Blues 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Bluegrass Blues is happiest on right handed tracks over seven furlongs, and he looks overpriced to land this handicap on his return from a break. Paul Cole's stable have had many horses run above market expectations just lately, and although they haven't won it bodes well for the selections chances. He has won after an absence before, and looks the type of horse who doesn't stand too much racing but can generally be relied upon given his optimum conditions even without a recent run. The booking of Luke Morris is a positive and I would suggest this race has been the plan for a few weeks at least.
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5.30 Galway thetote.com Galway Plate (Chase Handicap) (Grade A) 2m6f
Selection: Quantitativeeasing 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
A cracking renewal of the Galway showpiece. This is a strong contest this year, with the bottom of the weights rated higher than is average for the race. In saying that, I don't see a standout candidate on form and I think it might pay to support a horse who is proven at the track. Quantitativeeasing was second in this contest last year, and with the winner of that race Carlingford Lough now rated 22lb higher following a very succesful season, the form looks very strong especially given the pair pulled well clear of another course winner, Jacksonslady. Quantitativeeasing has since transferred from Nicky Henderson to Enda Bolger, but I don't really sea that as a negative and it may just be to freshen the horse up with a tilt at Cross Country racing in the minds of connections when the time comes. The booking of Barry Geraghty, who knows the horse well, is a real positive and would suggest Bolger thinks the horse is on good terms with himself. I also think the ground might have been a little slower than his ideal last year, and despite some rain in Galway this afternoon I feel underfoot conditions will be perfect for him today. 20/1+ looks too big and we'll play each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -20.50 / month: +51.45 / year: +347.75
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