A winner and two seconds from four bets was not enough to give us a positive return yesterday but we broke about even with the win of Henry Cecil's Zerzura, who was a cracking bet at 10/3.
One bet today.
Red Valerian Two represents a trainer whose horses tend to run really well at this track, and his record with 3yo's is particularly impressive, a 12% strike rate returning a positive L.S.P. of ~+21.
The son of Hawk Wing put up an improved performance in a maiden last time out, finishing well having looked green and pricking his ears up the home straight, beaten 10 lengths by a horse who will probably be rated at least 90 in time, and finishing just behind a horse rated 68. I often find that these types of races are the toughest for handicappers to accurately rate, and they often get it wrong. Red Valerian Two has been alloted a mark of 55 and I reckon his trainer is pleased, because in general he trains horses who have the ability to run to at least 70 at their best. Mozayada, Smarty Socks and countless others spring to mind, Midgeley can improve this type of horse and he trains them in such a way that Southwell suits them.
Hawk Wing's progeny are often quirky so I'm not surprised Tony Culhane's professional handling has been called for. Instead of holding him up today, I reckon he will be kept more prominent and allowed to gallop on around the home turn. The opposition look moderate, you always have to be afraid of Mark Johnston's representatives but his horse has acheived little to date. Wedding Dream won well last time but is up 12lb for beating average horses and if the selection is as good as I think, we have every chance of beating her receiving 3lb.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Southwell Red Valerium Two, 4pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)
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