One really interesting race at Redcar today.
4.10 Redcar
Mercer's Row 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
Adiator 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 22/1 Coral, guaranteed)
It never ceases to amaze me how often sprints races, and in particular sprint handicaps, are priced up with potential as the most important variable in determining a horse's chance. "Sexy", unexposed horses are routinely priced at the head of the market, are often well backed, and often bomb out completely. The reason is that sprinting is a fine art, and most handicappers will have a very particular set of circumstances that allow them to perform to the best of their abilities. Duke Cosimo is our sexy unexposed sprinter today: he is a half brother to Duke Of Firenze who is lightly raced and open to improvement. However, he is best priced 9/2 in a good field today and is well worth taking on. He hasn't run in 64 days which isn't a good sign for a sprinter midseason. He is in second time blinkers, and it's anyone's guess if they'll be as effective this time around. And more importantly, he won a solidly run Doncaster handicap last time out. Doncaster is a track which often favours hold up performers because jockeys frequently slightly misjudge the pace. Donny takes some getting and tends to suit those who stay on when those who have raced prominently have cried enough. Redcar doesn't favour hold up types quite as much and the lack of any out and out speedsters in this contest could make it difficult for Duke Cosimo today.
A number of these look quite exposed, and there might not be much in it from a handicapping point of view. I'm inclined to look for something that could have something in hand at the weights, and might be suited by the way this is likely to be run.
Mercer's Row is interesting, particularly with Joe Fanning taking over from Gemma Tutty. Karen Tutty's yard are probably having their best ever season, and the fairly average bunch of handicappers she trains are regularly exceeding market expectations. The selection is off his highest mark since 2012 today, and he has never won in this class, but he seems to be in the form of his life in common with many from the stable. He is a course and distance winner and the ground will be perfect for him after yesterday's rain. He has been seen racing over further recently, but looks a very adaptable type and is a strong traveller who does not lack for gears. I would expect Joe Fanning to ride him prominently and I find him especially interesting given that he is not reliant on a strong pace. His last run at Beverley is best ignored (was caught very wide) and odds of 33/1 look a bit insulting to me.
Adiator is a real dark horse. She needs a little bit of juice in the ground to be at her best, and she should be fine in that regard today. Her form figures at Redcar read 2,2,1 and she is another course and distance winner. Again, she tends to race prominently and is not reliant on front runners coming back to her - crucial in a race not overloaded with speed. The form of her course and distance maiden win is really interesting. The runner up, who was Evens favourite, is now rated OR97 having won his next two starts. The third won impressively next time out and is now rated OR95. The fourth hasn't run since, but the fifth rattled up a hat trick on his next three starts and is now rated OR88. Adiator runs here off OR66 and although she may simply not have progressed as those rivals have, she did win on her seasonal debut and has had excuses since. Andrew Mullen replaces an apprentice here, and I like the jockey booking. He is best with horses who require a no nonsense, get on with it type of ride and Adiator is just that sort of horse. Anything 20/1+ is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +21.55 / year: +317.85
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