Friday 22nd March 2013

Today marks the start of the flat season and we move into an abyss in terms of knowledge of the form, and in terms of knowing what horses are fit, and important details like what  condition tracks are in and are there any potential biases that haven't yet been discovered. In previous years, we've tried to second guess these variables with a certain degree of success (and a certain degree of failure!), but I pointed out at the start of the year that there would be particular times of the year that our Betfair SP multiple horse betting method would come into its own, and this is one of them - in fact between now many of our flat bets will be based on it in the next couple of weeks or so before the form settles down. You're going to see a of bad favourites, unraced two year olds winning unfancied, unfit hotpots beaten, and such like. Where possible we plan to take advantage.

Today sees our first opportunity of such.

1.25 Doncaster

5pts split evenly between Fuel Injection, Mops Angel, Kraka Gym, Picks Pinta, Bridge Of Avon, Sleaford, Red Biba all @ Betfair SP

Today we get a soft ground Brocklesby, which while not unheard of does give punters in general a headache. The ability of these juveniles is obviously a complete unknown, as is their ability to act on the ground and their fitness. It's a given that Bill Turner and Dave Evans will have their representatives tuned up, but do you really want to be taking 4/1 about a horse in this field? Donny Rover looks the best on paper but he might have to go to the front from stall 17 and Doncaster is the hardest track statistically in the UK to win at having been in front one furlong from home. What we do know is that nine of the last ten Brocklesby winners have been amongst the ten oldest horses in the field, with most of the winners being in the top five oldest horses. I find it interesting that four of the five market principals fail this trend. On Betfair, Mops Angel, Fuel Injection, Sleaford and Picks Pinta are all 20/1+, yet they make up four of the oldest five horses in the field, along with the favourite Mick's Yer Man. The other longshots include Bridge Of Avon, a second entry for Mel Brittain who had a horse run third in this last year, Kraka Gym, who represents last year's winning stable, and the outsider of the bunch Red Biba.

It might well be the Bill Turner horse goes and wins, but make no mistake this is the time of year to take advantage of unknowns which have not been factored into betting markets and I think there is great value to be had by backing the bottom seven in the market here. My hope would be that none of them get backed off the boards towards the off, but that's the chance you take. We'll split our stake for a total of five points at Betfair SP, our only interest this afternoon. I would be quite confident of making a decent return from this method over the next couple of weeks. If you don't have a Betfair account, take fixed odds guaranteed.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -6.35 / year: +16.46