Thursday 28th February 2013

Just one for Kempton.

8.00 Kempton Whiskey N Stout 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

First time gelded son or Amadeus Wolf who showed a good cruising speed on his debut at this track last August. He cost a pretty penny for a horse with his rating, and I thought it would be very interesting if he attracted any support at all this morning, which he has done. This is a really poor race and Jamie Osborne has a good record with horses of his profile returning from an absence, in the last year in particular. The selection can only improve off this basement mark and although it is slightly speculative, connections seem to have gone in again and I think we're getting a very good price on a possible improver here.

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Afternoon Bets:

Evening bets will follow before 5.00pm, with the possibility of a price alert. We may also have ante post bets today, plenty of warning will be given.

2.50 Southwell Krupskaya 4pts win @ 11/2 (generally guaranteed)

Neither of the top two make a great deal of appeal here, with neither having shown their best form at Southwell. A chance is taken on the Burke filly Krupskaya, who is by a sire whose progeny boast a 29% record at this track, which tells its own story. She looked a real galloper when winning at Newcastle last summer on heavy ground, and she is nicely drawn in stall 4 here to get into a good rhythm on the favoured otutside strip of ground. She isn't too badly wrong at the weights, and the stable have a good record of 16% in claiming races over the past five years returning an l.s.p. of +27.48 (improving to 19% for 3yo only).

4.50 Southwell Marshall Art 3pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

It was hard not to be impressed with the manner of Marshall Art's victory over course and distance on his penultimate run, and he is easily forgiven a bad run at Lingfield last time, where he never got the run of the race. He posted the best speed figure at Southwell of all these in the past year, on just his second start at the track. A good 7lb claimer is booked and his draw in stall 6 is just about perfect in this size of field over six furlongs. The danger is that he gets taken on for the lead, and given that he owes us nothing we'll reduce our stake slightly given that it is hard to be certain if the race will be run to suit.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -32.40 / year: +22.91