Hughie Morrison has a 5/12 42% strike rate with two year olds at this track over the last five seasons, and was responsible for the winner of this contest two years ago. He enters Activation here, stepped up fully three furlongs in trip to ten furlongs. There is only limited evidence on his pedigree that he might improve for the step up in trip, and chances are he may not, but that is factored into his price and he is interesting off a mark of OR57 at these odds, in a moderate looking nursery. The selection already has experience of this quirky track, staying on quite well late in the day over five and a half furlongs on his third start in early August. He was stepped up to a mile on the all weather after that, which returned no dividends, and nor did stepping him back in first time cheekpieces at Lingfield's turf course. His latest run over seven furlongs on turf was more promising, albeit dropped to selling class. He stayed on well late in the race, racing away from the action and really looking like he was only getting going. Richard Hughes may have suggested stepping him up in trip and it is interesting not only that connections do so, but that they have taken the trouble to book Silvestre De Sousa, with Hughes riding for his boss Richard Hannon. Most of the opposition today haven't achieved a great deal on the track, and it is probably a case of whatever horse improves the most for these conditions, wins. Activation's course form, lowly handicap mark, and recent form all give him a chance and he is overpriced at 16/1+.
4.40 Hamilton Chooseday 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R
Kevin Stott has a respectable 15% strike rate at this track for an apprentice, and his mount Chooseday looks to big at the prices for the feature sprint. The selection returned to form two runs back at Ripon, with a very strong third of twenty behind Duke Cosimo. He has had excuses since, and faces some course specialists here, but that form looks particularly strong in the context of this race and the selection appears to be well drawn here. He should get a tow into the contest from Baron Run and perhaps King Of Eden, and provided the gaps come at the right time he should be able to pick the leaders up late on. This horse can be hard to predict, but he has everything in his favour today including his handicap mark of OR81 and the 5lb claim of his rider. He has the ability to win this on a going day and I think Hamilton will suit him. We'll play win only at the 10/1.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -143.50 / year: +204.55
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