Friday 25th April 2014

Two races of interest for Friday.

2.45 Sandown 

Garswood 3pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Penitent 2pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

2pts Reverse forecast on the above @ dividend (ie. a total of 2pts, 1pt on each outcome)

A notable feature of the flat season so far has been the good form of the Fahey and O'Meara stables, who have both started the season well. As a result I think it makes sense to back these two horses, both of whom have conditions in their favour today. Garswood is a horse I think will improve a lot as a four year old. He enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and has winning form at Goodwood, which is a similar switchback track to Sandown. He is also proven to go well fresh, and was arguably at his most impressive on his seasonal reappearance last season. At 4/1 I think he is worth backing to win and in a reverse forecast with Penitent.

Penitent has an excellent record at this track, and goes well on soft ground. He will have a fitness edge on his rivals today and any lack of racing edge in the likes of Montiridge or Top Notch Tonto will be exposed on this ground. 11/2 is too big and the stable have begun firing in the winners similar to last season.

4.35 Doncaster 

Green Monkey 4pts win @ 9/2 (Stan James, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed) - N/R

Sleepy Blue Ocean 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Keep It Dark 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 40/1 / 33/1 generally guaranteed)

Of the short priced horses here, I think Green Monkey is by some way the best handicapped and perhaps the horse with the most potential. His stable have yet to fully fire, but the manner of this horses' victory on his last run at Yarmouth suggests he has a lot left to give as an older horse. Fanshawe has campaigned him really carefully thus far and to my eye he should only improve for the hustle and bustle of a big field and a strong pace. There is plenty of speed on show here and I expect Shane Kelly to produce the selection late. He looks the most likely winner and he might look a big price in retrospect by 4.40pm.

That said, these sprint handicaps can throw up big priced winners at this time of year. Sleepy Blue Ocean has his ideal conditions here and, as a horse with a fitness edge over his rivals, looks too big with Robert Winston booked. He will benefit from a strong pace and I don't think he has peaked out yet, even though he is now an eight year old.

Keep It Dark is more speculative again but is a potential improver for these conditions in my view. The selection picked up a pair of Newcastle handicaps last season, showing a high cruising speed in the process. He is another who is fit from the all weather and a recent spin at Thirsk, and although things didn't go his way there I think five furlongs on this kind of track will suit him. His jockey rides the track well and he looks twice the price he should be - he is a 20/1 shot in my book.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +173.50 / year: +113.25