Monday, November 18, 2013

Tuesday 12th November 2013

Two selections for this afternoon. There is a small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton, to be released before today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 2/1 and 6/1 generally guaranteed

1.30 Lingfield Richmond 4pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

The form of Richmond's chase debut quite simply puts him in with a huge chance from a handicapping perspective here. This looks a fine piece of placement from his trainer, who is exploiting the fact that horses who have raced in a Novice event can run in a handicap under certain circumstances. A mark of OR110 looks very fair and the switch from Ian Williams to a trainer who has a reputation for Novices who jump soundly looks a positive - particularly with Venetia in such good form. He is entered at Taunton in a few days time and strikes me as the type who could run up a sequence. He isn't overfaced here and really should be winning handy. As such, 2/1 is too big - I made him a 6/4 shot.

2.10 Huntingdon Baile Anrai 4pts win @ 13/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Dan Skelton has had a really strong start to his training career and a feature of his representatives this season so far is that they do not lack for fitness first time out. Baile Anrai jumped sketchily over fences last year and looks the type of horse who could thrive for the change of scenery and switching of codes back to hurdles, off a mark of OR125 which he is definitely better than. I can't see much in here to be afraid of and on my book I made him somewhere between 4/1 and 9/2. Broadway Buffalo looks the biggest danger but I rate the selection better than him. I don't think Skelton's first time out switchers will be going off at the likes of these prices for long, and I'm happy to include the selection in an each-way double with Richmond.

Profit & loss: day: +2.00 / month: -80.80 / year: +378.70

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